PAUL, ADAM NICHOLAS

I · president

FEC candidate id: P00011767
Internal id: 27d3572c-5d75-4075-8098-be5d31e7732d
Status: challenger

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2020	$4,729	$4,679	$51	$4,729	$0

Elections

2020 general president — running
2020 general president — running
2020 general president — running
2020 general president — running
2020 general president — running
2020 general president — running
2020 general president — running
2020 general president — running
2020 general president — running
2020 general president — running
2020 general president — running
2020 general president — running
2020 general president — running
2020 general president — running
2020 general president — running
2020 general president — running
2024 general president · 2024-11-05 — running
2024 general president · 2024-11-05 — lost_general
2024 general president — running
2024 general president — running
2024 general president — running
2024 general president — running
2024 general president — running
2024 general president — running
2024 general president — running
2024 general president — running
2024 general president — running
2024 general president — running
2024 general president — running

Committees

CITIZENS FOR ADAM NICHOLAS PAUL — principal · type S

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 15.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Connected on the graph

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	CITIZENS FOR ADAM NICHOLAS PAUL	—		candidate_committees

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