BAREA, JEFFREY
R Β· president
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- FEC candidate id
P20002689- Internal id
563c6519-3745-4328-af87-8082aa3a9f55- Status
- challenger
Elections
- 2012 general president β running
- 2012 general president β running
- 2012 general president β running
- 2012 general president β running
- 2012 general president β running
- 2012 general president β running
- 2012 general president β running
- 2012 general president β running
- 2012 general president β running
- 2012 general president β running
- 2012 general president β running
Committees
- JEFF BAREA 4 PREZ β principal Β· type P
- JEFFREY BAREA 4 PRESIDENT β principal Β· type P
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (2)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | JEFF BAREA 4 PREZ | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | principal_candidate_of | JEFFREY BAREA 4 PRESIDENT | β | candidate_committees |