BARNARD, DAVID J JR
D Β· president
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- FEC candidate id
P20005542- Internal id
b538d772-4a7f-4552-90f8-047811074edd- Status
- challenger
Elections
- 2021 general president β running
- 2021 general president β running
- 2021 general president β running
- 2021 general president β running
- 2021 general president β running
- 2021 general president β running
- 2021 general president β running
- 2021 general president β running
- 2021 general president β running
- 2021 general president β running
- 2021 general president β running
- 2021 general president β running
Committees
- DAVID BARNARD FOR PRESIDENT IN 2024 β principal Β· type P
- DAVID JOSHUA BARNARD FOR PRESIDENT IN 2024 β principal Β· type P
- DAVIED J BARNARD 4 PRESIDENT IN 2024 β principal Β· type P
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (3)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | DAVIED J BARNARD 4 PRESIDENT IN 2024 | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | principal_candidate_of | DAVID JOSHUA BARNARD FOR PRESIDENT IN 2024 | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | principal_candidate_of | DAVID BARNARD FOR PRESIDENT IN 2024 | β | candidate_committees |