BUCHANAN, JOHN HOWARD
R ยท president
Sign in to add to a watchlist โ
- FEC candidate id
P40003162- Internal id
829f68cd-ac55-4071-981a-e5453f03f9d8- Status
- challenger
Elections
- 2004 general president โ running
- 2004 general president โ running
- 2004 general president โ running
- 2004 general president โ running
- 2004 general president โ running
- 2004 general president โ running
- 2004 general president โ running
- 2004 general president โ running
- 2004 general president โ running
Committees
- BUCHANAN FOR PRESIDENT 2004 โ principal ยท type P
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 ยท model baseline-v1 ยท base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | ฮ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency ร party ร office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| โ | principal_candidate_of | BUCHANAN FOR PRESIDENT 2004 | โ | candidate_committees |