FOURROUX, PATRICK HENRY

R · president

FEC candidate id: P40011223
Internal id: d424d81f-6ab9-451e-9dec-485f56416664
Status: challenger

Elections

2024 general president · 2024-11-05 — running
2024 general president · 2024-11-05 — lost_general
2024 general president — running
2024 general president — running
2024 general president — running
2024 general president — running
2024 general president — running
2024 general president — running
2024 general president — running

Committees

20TH TELEVISION — independent · type X

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Connected on the graph

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	independent_committee_of	20TH TELEVISION	—		candidate_committees

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