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THOMPSON, SYLVANIA

I Β· president

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FEC candidate id
P40014409
Internal id
2c7d7360-ac05-4e3f-b314-72c087443c47
Status
challenger

Elections

Committees

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 15.1%

FeatureΞ” P(win)
Base rate (historical)15.1%

Baseline model (incumbency Γ— party Γ— office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

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β€”principal_candidate_ofSYLVANIA THOMPSON CAMPAIGNβ€”candidate_committees

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