MANNING, PAUL
OTHER ยท president
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- FEC candidate id
P40018715- Internal id
e434d348-193b-47fc-a89f-82d459212536- Status
- challenger
Elections
- 2024 general president ยท 2024-11-05 โ lost_general
- 2024 general president ยท 2024-11-05 โ running
- 2024 general president โ running
- 2024 general president โ running
- 2024 general president โ running
- 2024 general president โ running
- 2024 general president โ running
- 2024 general president โ running
- 2024 general president โ running
- 2024 general president โ running
- 2024 general president โ running
- 2024 general president โ running
- 2024 general president โ running
Committees
- TIME TO TAKE IT ALL BACK MANNING FOR PRESIDENT โ principal ยท type P
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 ยท model baseline-v1 ยท base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 15.1%
| Feature | ฮ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
Baseline model (incumbency ร party ร office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| โ | principal_candidate_of | TIME TO TAKE IT ALL BACK MANNING FOR PRESIDENT | โ | candidate_committees |