HOELZEL, JOHN RICHARD JR
I Β· president
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- FEC candidate id
P60003571- Internal id
45507e90-e2c7-425e-b923-5d5a860b904b- Status
- challenger
Elections
- 1996 general president β running
- 1996 general president β running
- 1996 general president β running
- 1996 general president β running
- 1996 general president β running
- 1996 general president β running
- 1996 general president β running
- 2012 general president β running
- 2012 general president β running
- 2012 general president β running
- 2012 general president β running
- 2012 general president β running
- 2012 general president β running
- 2012 general president β running
- 2012 general president β running
- 2012 general president β running
Committees
- JOHN R HOELZEL JR FOR PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES β principal Β· type P
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 15.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | JOHN R HOELZEL JR FOR PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES | β | candidate_committees |