CRUZ, RAFAEL EDWARD "TED"

R · president

FEC candidate id: P60006111
Internal id: 259cb085-dfd9-461f-9e0c-cbba2c9200cf
Status: open seat

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2026	$0	$0	$32,048	$0	$0
2024	$0	$139	$32,048	$0	$0
2022	$0	$0	$32,187	$0	$0
2020	$6,575	$6,892	$32,187	$0	$0
2018	$322,840	$324,186	$32,505	$0	$0
2016	$94,338,655	$94,304,803	$33,852	$0	$92,036,252

Elections

2016 general president — running
2016 general president — running
2016 general president — running
2016 general president — running
2016 general president — running
2016 general president — running
2016 general president — running
2016 general president — running
2016 general president — running
2016 general president — running
2016 general president — running
2016 general president — running
2016 general president — running
2016 general president — running
2016 general president — running

Committees

CRUZ FOR PRESIDENT — principal · type P
CRUZ INTO PRESIDENT — independent · type U
RESTORING LIBERTY''S PROMISE DELEGATE COMMITTEE LLC — independent · type D

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 20.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%
open seat	-5.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Connected on the graph

Outbound (3)

date	type	to	amount	source
—	independent_committee_of	CRUZ INTO PRESIDENT	—	candidate_committees
—	independent_committee_of	RESTORING LIBERTY''S PROMISE DELEGATE COMMITTEE LLC	—	candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	CRUZ FOR PRESIDENT	—	candidate_committees

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