PENN, MARGIE NELL
D Β· president
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- FEC candidate id
P60006921- Internal id
02d615e5-a0bc-4c3a-ac19-36dfaa66ca0d- Status
- challenger
Elections
- 2015 general president β running
- 2015 general president β running
Committees
- NA β principal Β· type P
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | NA | β | candidate_committees |