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MOONEY, JOHN MR,

I Β· president

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FEC candidate id
P60013232
Internal id
e474f02f-ead1-435a-aac8-3fd4841b7e57
Status
open seat

Elections

Committees

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 10.1%

FeatureΞ” P(win)
Base rate (historical)15.1%
open seat-5.0%

Baseline model (incumbency Γ— party Γ— office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

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