MANELSKI, DEVON MARCUS

I · president

FEC candidate id: P60015773
Internal id: 7717bead-dcda-464e-bcae-8457518d4da3
Status: open seat

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2018	$6,017	$7,255	$441	$0	$0
2016	$16,670	$20,423	$904	$0	$0

Elections

2016 general president — running
2016 general president — running
2016 general president — running
2016 general president — running
2016 general president — running
2016 general president — running
2016 general president — running
2016 general president — running

Committees

DEVON MANELSKI FOR PRESIDENT IN 2016 INC — principal · type P

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 10.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
open seat	-5.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Connected on the graph

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	DEVON MANELSKI FOR PRESIDENT IN 2016 INC	—		candidate_committees

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