FERRY, CHARLES GRIFFITH

OTHER · president

FEC candidate id: P60022118
Internal id: 52348341-052e-44ab-811a-a55c19c2de75
Status: open seat

Elections

2016 general president — running
2016 general president — running
2016 general president — running
2016 general president — running
2016 general president — running
2016 general president — running
2016 general president — running
2016 general president — running
2016 general president — running
2016 general president — running
2016 general president — running

Committees

COMMITTEE TO ELECT CHARLES GRIFFITH FERRY — principal · type P
CONSERVATIVE PARTY NATIONAL COMMITTEE — principal · type P
CONSERVATIVE PARTY OF THE US — principal · type P
CONSERVATIVE PARTY OF THESE UNITED STATES — principal · type P
CONSERVATIVE PARTY OF THESE UNITED STATES — independent · type P
FEDERALIST PARTY NATIONAL COMMITTEE — independent · type P
FEDERALIST PARTY OF THE UNITED STATES — principal · type P
FEDERALIST PARTY OF THE US — principal · type P
REFORM PARTY OF THE US — independent · type X

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 10.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
open seat	-5.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Connected on the graph

Outbound (9)

date	type	to	amount	source
—	independent_committee_of	CONSERVATIVE PARTY OF THESE UNITED STATES	—	candidate_committees
—	independent_committee_of	REFORM PARTY OF THE US	—	candidate_committees
—	independent_committee_of	FEDERALIST PARTY NATIONAL COMMITTEE	—	candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	FEDERALIST PARTY OF THE US	—	candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	CONSERVATIVE PARTY OF THESE UNITED STATES	—	candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	COMMITTEE TO ELECT CHARLES GRIFFITH FERRY	—	candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	CONSERVATIVE PARTY NATIONAL COMMITTEE	—	candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	CONSERVATIVE PARTY OF THE US	—	candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	FEDERALIST PARTY OF THE UNITED STATES	—	candidate_committees

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