WARNER, MARK
D Β· president
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- FEC candidate id
P80003023- Internal id
451ccf1e-6d33-484b-a73b-bc20c513aad9- Status
- open seat
Elections
- 2008 general president β running
- 2008 general president β running
- 2008 general president β running
- 2008 general president β running
- 2008 general president β running
Committees
- DRAFT MARK WARNER FOR PRESIDENT β independent Β· type U
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 20.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
| open seat | -5.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
| Date | From committee | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-10 | GENERAL ATOMICS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | 24K | $5,000 |
| 2025-06-25 | CAREER EDUCATION COLLEGES AND UNIVERSITIES POLI⦠| 24K | $1,000 |
| 2025-02-05 | UNITED MINE WORKERS OF AMERICA - COAL MINERS PO⦠| 24K | $1,500 |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (3)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-10 | GENERAL ATOMICS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | contributed_to | $5,000 | pas2 | |
| 2025-06-25 | CAREER EDUCATION COLLEGES AND UNIVERSITIES POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | contributed_to | $1,000 | pas2 | |
| 2025-02-05 | UNITED MINE WORKERS OF AMERICA - COAL MINERS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | contributed_to | $1,500 | pas2 |
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | independent_committee_of | DRAFT MARK WARNER FOR PRESIDENT | β | candidate_committees |