OBAMA, BARACK / JOSEPH R. BIDEN

D · president

FEC candidate id: P80003338
Internal id: 68ed612e-b1f1-4d49-a3c3-ec9efa5f796c
Status: challenger

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2018	$659,029	$905,767	$55,367	$0	$0
2016	$3,280,420	$4,523,936	$302,105	$124,689	$85
2014	$14,082,209	$15,835,901	$1,545,621	$1,989,716	$113,391
2012	$738,503,770	$737,507,855	$3,299,313	$5,647,730	$549,580,640
2010	$4,098,143	$20,067,113	$2,303,398	$0	$-179,783
2008	$778,642,962	$760,370,195	$18,272,367	$434,954	$664,872,382

Elections

2008 general president — running
2008 general president — running
2008 general president — running
2008 general president — running
2008 general president — running
2008 general president — running
2012 general president — running
2012 general president — running
2012 general president — running
2012 general president — running
2012 general president — running
2012 general president — running
2012 general president — running
2012 general president — running
2012 general president — running
2012 general president — running

Committees

ADA LIBERAL VICTORY FUND — independent · type U
ALASKAN WOMEN FOR OBAMA — independent · type U
AUDACIOUS VERMONTERS FOR HOPE — independent · type U
AUDACITY PAC — independent · type U
CALIFORNIANS FOR CHANGE — independent · type N
CHISHOLM 72 PAC — independent · type U
COALITION FOR CHANGE — independent · type U
COALITION TO SAVE ALBANY — independent · type U
DC LGBT FOR SECOND TERM — independent · type U
DREAM TEAM; THE — independent · type U
HONOR AMERICA PAC — independent · type U
JEWISH SAN ANTONIANS FOR LEADERSHIP CHANGE — independent · type U
KOREAN AMERICANS FOR OBAMA — independent · type U
MONTANA FOR OBAMA — independent · type U
OBAMA - COMMITTEE TO ELECT — independent · type U
OBAMA FOR AMERICA — principal · type P
OBAMA FOR AMERICA DRAFT COMMITTEE — independent · type U
OBAMA PRINCE GEORGE'S COUNTY DELEGATE COMMITTEE — independent · type D
OBAMA VICTORY FUND — joint_fundraising · type N
OBAMA VICTORY FUND 2012 — joint_fundraising · type N
OCEANA FRIENDS OF OBAMA — independent · type U
PA MOVING FORWARD — independent · type U
PEOPLE FOR CHANGE — independent · type U
REALISTIC AND TRUTHFUL — independent · type U
ROCHESTER NY DELEGATES FOR OBAMA — independent · type D
STOP HIM NOW PAC — independent · type U
STUDENTS FOR BARACK OBAMA DRAFT COMMITTEE — independent · type U
SUPPORT THE PREZ — independent · type U
SWING STATE VICTORY FUND — joint_fundraising · type N
VETS FOR OBAMA — independent · type U
VICTORY MEMPHIS — independent · type U
VOTE BOTH — independent · type U
WNC FOR CHANGE — independent · type N
WNY DELEGATES FOR OBAMA — independent · type D
YES WE CAN NEBRASKA — independent · type N

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
D (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Connected on the graph

Outbound (35)

date	type	to	amount	source
—	independent_committee_of	COALITION FOR CHANGE	—	candidate_committees
—	independent_committee_of	STOP HIM NOW PAC	—	candidate_committees
—	independent_committee_of	WNC FOR CHANGE	—	candidate_committees
—	independent_committee_of	PEOPLE FOR CHANGE	—	candidate_committees
—	independent_committee_of	CHISHOLM 72 PAC	—	candidate_committees
—	independent_committee_of	MONTANA FOR OBAMA	—	candidate_committees
—	independent_committee_of	ADA LIBERAL VICTORY FUND	—	candidate_committees
—	independent_committee_of	KOREAN AMERICANS FOR OBAMA	—	candidate_committees
—	independent_committee_of	AUDACIOUS VERMONTERS FOR HOPE	—	candidate_committees
—	independent_committee_of	REALISTIC AND TRUTHFUL	—	candidate_committees
—	independent_committee_of	OBAMA PRINCE GEORGE'S COUNTY DELEGATE COMMITTEE	—	candidate_committees
—	independent_committee_of	VICTORY MEMPHIS	—	candidate_committees
—	independent_committee_of	DC LGBT FOR SECOND TERM	—	candidate_committees
—	independent_committee_of	OCEANA FRIENDS OF OBAMA	—	candidate_committees
—	independent_committee_of	WNY DELEGATES FOR OBAMA	—	candidate_committees
—	independent_committee_of	AUDACITY PAC	—	candidate_committees
—	independent_committee_of	COALITION TO SAVE ALBANY	—	candidate_committees
—	independent_committee_of	VOTE BOTH	—	candidate_committees
—	independent_committee_of	SUPPORT THE PREZ	—	candidate_committees
—	independent_committee_of	DREAM TEAM; THE	—	candidate_committees
—	independent_committee_of	ALASKAN WOMEN FOR OBAMA	—	candidate_committees
—	independent_committee_of	VETS FOR OBAMA	—	candidate_committees
—	independent_committee_of	OBAMA FOR AMERICA DRAFT COMMITTEE	—	candidate_committees
—	independent_committee_of	HONOR AMERICA PAC	—	candidate_committees
—	independent_committee_of	CALIFORNIANS FOR CHANGE	—	candidate_committees
—	independent_committee_of	ROCHESTER NY DELEGATES FOR OBAMA	—	candidate_committees
—	independent_committee_of	PA MOVING FORWARD	—	candidate_committees
—	independent_committee_of	JEWISH SAN ANTONIANS FOR LEADERSHIP CHANGE	—	candidate_committees
—	independent_committee_of	YES WE CAN NEBRASKA	—	candidate_committees
—	independent_committee_of	STUDENTS FOR BARACK OBAMA DRAFT COMMITTEE	—	candidate_committees
—	independent_committee_of	OBAMA - COMMITTEE TO ELECT	—	candidate_committees
—	joint_fundraising_committee_of	OBAMA VICTORY FUND 2012	—	candidate_committees
—	joint_fundraising_committee_of	SWING STATE VICTORY FUND	—	candidate_committees
—	joint_fundraising_committee_of	OBAMA VICTORY FUND	—	candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	OBAMA FOR AMERICA	—	candidate_committees

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