BAILEY, GEORGE BRENT JR

R · president

FEC candidate id: P80003957
Internal id: d39d34fb-e374-47b4-a892-a7cdf8c7dbaf
Status: open seat

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2016	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0

Elections

2008 general president — running
2008 general president — running
2008 general president — running
2008 general president — running
2008 general president — running
2012 general president — running
2012 general president — running
2012 general president — running
2012 general president — running
2012 general president — running
2012 general president — running
2012 general president — running
2016 general president — running
2016 general president — running
2016 general president — running
2016 general president — running
2016 general president — running
2016 general president — running
2016 general president — running
2016 general president — running

Committees

DR GEORGE BAILEY FOR PRESIDENT — principal · type P
GEORGE BAILEY FOR PRESIDENT 2012 — principal · type P
GEORGE BAILEY FOR PRESIDENT 2016 INCORPORATION — principal · type P

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 20.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%
open seat	-5.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Connected on the graph

Outbound (3)

date	type	to	amount	source
—	principal_candidate_of	GEORGE BAILEY FOR PRESIDENT 2012	—	candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	GEORGE BAILEY FOR PRESIDENT 2016 INCORPORATION	—	candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	DR GEORGE BAILEY FOR PRESIDENT	—	candidate_committees

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