NELSON, TOM
D Β· senate
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- FEC candidate id
S0WI00247- Internal id
dd911cd5-5840-4ef0-852d-000d748dfba2- Status
- open seat
Who this candidate represents (statewide)
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), Wisconsin. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 5,914,872 |
| People | Median age | 40 |
| Income | Median household income | $77,485 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $43,373 |
| Income | In poverty | 10.6% |
| Income | Unemployed | 3.2% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.444 |
| Race | White alone | 80.1% |
| Race | Black alone | 6.1% |
| Race | Asian alone | 3.0% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 8.0% |
| Race | Two or more races | 7.6% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 5.2% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 91.0% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 4.9% |
| Education | High school or higher | 62.8% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 33.4% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 11.4% |
| Household | Family households | 60.5% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.33 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 33.5% |
| Housing | Median home value | $266,500 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,087 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 66.2% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 5.3% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 1.6% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 10.8% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 6.2% |
| Health | With a disability | 12.3% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 90.3% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 6.9% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 74.4% |
| Commute | Public transit | 1.1% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 13.1% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $9,090 | $8,181 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 2022 | $1,538,533 | $1,744,637 | $-909 | $0 | $1,464,939 |
| 2020 | $218,841 | $63,555 | $205,194 | $8,389 | $216,140 |
Elections
- 2020 general senate Β· WI-S β running
- 2022 general senate Β· WI-S β lost_general
- 2022 general senate Β· WI-S β lost_general
- 2022 general senate Β· WI-S β lost_general
- 2022 general senate Β· WI-S β running
- 2022 general senate Β· WI-S β lost_general
- 2022 general senate Β· WI-S β lost_general
Committees
- NELSON FOR WISCONSIN β principal Β· type S
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 18.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
| open seat | -5.0% |
| senate race | -2.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
| Date | From committee | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-09-27 | MARK POCAN FOR CONGRESS | 24K | $2,500 |
| 2022-03-31 | THE MAJORITY RULES | 24K | $500 |
| 2021-06-15 | THE MAJORITY RULES | 24K | $1,000 |
| 2021-03-22 | THE MAJORITY RULES | 24K | $1,500 |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (4)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-09-27 | MARK POCAN FOR CONGRESS | contributed_to | $2,500 | pas2 | |
| 2022-03-31 | THE MAJORITY RULES | contributed_to | $500 | pas2 | |
| 2021-06-15 | THE MAJORITY RULES | contributed_to | $1,000 | pas2 | |
| 2021-03-22 | THE MAJORITY RULES | contributed_to | $1,500 | pas2 |
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | NELSON FOR WISCONSIN | β | candidate_committees |