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TSHIBAKA, KELLY

R Β· senate

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FEC candidate id
S2AK00127
Internal id
b85697ee-5457-47dd-ac3e-9d4b58f8ccf6
Status
challenger

Who this candidate represents (statewide)

Who lives here β€” American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), Alaska. Source.

CategoryMetricValue
PeoplePopulation735,706
PeopleMedian age36
IncomeMedian household income$92,788
IncomePer-capita income$46,573
IncomeIn poverty10.1%
IncomeUnemployed5.5%
IncomeGini inequality index0.433
RaceWhite alone59.6%
RaceBlack alone3.0%
RaceAsian alone6.5%
RaceHispanic or Latino7.3%
RaceTwo or more races13.6%
OriginForeign-born7.7%
LanguageSpeaks English only at home84.9%
LanguageSpeaks Spanish at home3.3%
EducationHigh school or higher60.5%
EducationBachelor's or higher31.7%
EducationAdvanced degree11.8%
HouseholdFamily households63.9%
HouseholdAvg household size2.61
HouseholdNever married (15+)34.4%
HousingMedian home value$352,900
HousingMedian gross rent$1,419
HousingSingle-family detached63.2%
HousingBuilt before 19401.5%
HousingOvercrowded (>1 per room)5.7%
HousingVacant units17.6%
ServiceVeterans (18+)10.8%
HealthWith a disability13.6%
ConnectivityHouseholds with broadband91.9%
ConnectivityHouseholds with no internet5.8%
CommuteDrove alone65.0%
CommutePublic transit1.0%
CommuteWorked from home9.8%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

CycleRaisedSpentCash on handDebtsIndiv. contribs.
2026$0$3,589$0$0$0
2024$9,947$57,610$3,589$0$1,144
2022$6,011,432$5,960,180$51,252$1,814$5,733,782

Elections

Committees

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 23.1%

FeatureΞ” P(win)
Base rate (historical)15.1%
R (major party)+10.0%
senate race-2.0%

Baseline model (incumbency Γ— party Γ— office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

CycleSupportOpposeIEs
2022$792,502$8,474,01973

Recent (latest 25)

DateSpenderFor / againstAmountPurpose
β€”PRIORITIES USA ACTIONoppose$902Ad Production (Estimate)
β€”PRIORITIES USA ACTIONoppose$7,143Ad Buy (Estimate)
β€”PRIORITIES USA ACTIONoppose$820Ad Production (Estimate)
β€”PRIORITIES USA ACTIONoppose$759Ad Production (Estimate)
2022-11-01KEEPING AMERICA GREAT PACsupport$4,996TV Advertising
2022-10-26ALASKA FIRSTsupport$3,000PRODUCTION COST: TEXTS AND DIGITAL AD
2022-10-21ALASKA FIRSTsupport$62,500GOTV VOTER PHONE CALLS AND TEXTS
2022-10-21ALASKA FIRSTsupport$54,978DIRECT MAIL: PRINTING AND POSTAGE
2022-10-21ALASKA FIRSTsupport$3,970PRODUCTION COST: TV AD
2022-10-20ALASKA FIRSTsupport$600,000PLACED MEDIA: TV
2022-10-20SLF PACoppose$615,520TV/MEDIA PLACEMENT
2022-10-18SLF PACoppose$3,000WEB AD
2022-10-18SLF PACoppose$10,528TV/MEDIA PRODUCTION
2022-10-18SLF PACoppose$1,182RADIO PRODUCTION
2022-10-18SLF PACoppose$70,448ONLINE ADVERTISING
2022-10-14SLF PACoppose$107,342POSTAGE / PRINTING / PRODUCTION
2022-10-12SLF PACoppose$914,173TV/MEDIA PLACEMENT
2022-10-12SLF PACoppose$60,901POSTAGE / PRINTING / PRODUCTION
2022-10-12PATRIOT FREEDOM PAC INCsupport$409Printing
2022-10-12SLF PACoppose$53,352RADIO PLACEMENT
2022-10-11SLF PACoppose$11,062TV/MEDIA PRODUCTION
2022-10-11SLF PACoppose$3,000WEB AD
2022-10-11SLF PACoppose$70,406ONLINE ADVERTISING
2022-10-11SLF PACoppose$1,182RADIO PRODUCTION
2022-10-10PATRIOT FREEDOM PAC INCsupport$200Advertising

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

DateFrom committeeTypeAmount
2022-12-31WINRED24K$-25
2022-12-30WINRED24K$-50
2022-12-30WINRED24K$-40
2022-12-30WINRED24K$-25
2022-12-29WINRED24K$-100
2022-12-29WINRED24K$-25
2022-12-29WINRED24K$-25
2022-12-28WINRED24K$-2,900
2022-12-28WINRED24K$-2,900
2022-12-28WINRED24K$-50
2022-12-28WINRED24K$-723
2022-12-28WINRED24K$-40
2022-12-27WINRED24K$-100
2022-12-27WINRED24K$-280
2022-12-27WINRED24K$-700
2022-12-27WINRED24K$-320
2022-12-24WINRED24K$-100
2022-12-22WINRED24K$-100
2022-12-22WINRED24K$-2,900
2022-12-22WINRED24K$-15
2022-12-22WINRED24K$-15
2022-12-22WINRED24K$-60
2022-12-22WINRED24K$-100
2022-12-22WINRED24K$-25
2022-12-20WINRED24K$-2,100

Connected on the graph

Inbound (100)

datefromtypeamountrolesource
β€”PRIORITIES USA ACTIONopposes_independently$7,143fec_ies
β€”PRIORITIES USA ACTIONopposes_independently$820fec_ies
β€”PRIORITIES USA ACTIONopposes_independently$902fec_ies
β€”PRIORITIES USA ACTIONopposes_independently$759fec_ies
2022-12-31WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-12-30WINREDcontributed_to$-40pas2
2022-12-30WINREDcontributed_to$-50pas2
2022-12-30WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-12-29WINREDcontributed_to$-100pas2
2022-12-29WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-12-29WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-12-28WINREDcontributed_to$-723pas2
2022-12-28WINREDcontributed_to$-2,900pas2
2022-12-28WINREDcontributed_to$-50pas2
2022-12-28WINREDcontributed_to$-2,900pas2
2022-12-28WINREDcontributed_to$-40pas2
2022-12-27WINREDcontributed_to$-320pas2
2022-12-27WINREDcontributed_to$-280pas2
2022-12-27WINREDcontributed_to$-100pas2
2022-12-27WINREDcontributed_to$-700pas2
2022-12-24WINREDcontributed_to$-100pas2
2022-12-22WINREDcontributed_to$-100pas2
2022-12-22WINREDcontributed_to$-100pas2
2022-12-22WINREDcontributed_to$-15pas2
2022-12-22WINREDcontributed_to$-60pas2
2022-12-22WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-12-22WINREDcontributed_to$-15pas2
2022-12-22WINREDcontributed_to$-2,900pas2
2022-12-20WINREDcontributed_to$-100pas2
2022-12-20WINREDcontributed_to$-2,100pas2
2022-12-20WINREDcontributed_to$-100pas2
2022-12-19WINREDcontributed_to$-525pas2
2022-12-19WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-12-19WINREDcontributed_to$-2,000pas2
2022-12-18WINREDcontributed_to$-50pas2
2022-12-18WINREDcontributed_to$-10pas2
2022-12-18WINREDcontributed_to$-50pas2
2022-12-18WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-12-17WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-12-16WINREDcontributed_to$-2,900pas2
2022-12-16WINREDcontributed_to$-50pas2
2022-12-16WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-12-16WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-12-16WINREDcontributed_to$-10pas2
2022-12-15WINREDcontributed_to$-500pas2
2022-12-15WINREDcontributed_to$-50pas2
2022-12-15WINREDcontributed_to$-50pas2
2022-12-14WINREDcontributed_to$-50pas2
2022-12-13WINREDcontributed_to$-50pas2
2022-12-13WINREDcontributed_to$-50pas2
2022-12-13WINREDcontributed_to$-50pas2
2022-12-13WINREDcontributed_to$-50pas2
2022-12-11WINREDcontributed_to$-50pas2
2022-12-09WINREDcontributed_to$-50pas2
2022-12-09WINREDcontributed_to$-2,500pas2
2022-12-09WINREDcontributed_to$-100pas2
2022-12-09WINREDcontributed_to$-2,500pas2
2022-12-08WINREDcontributed_to$-500pas2
2022-12-08WINREDcontributed_to$-100pas2
2022-12-08WINREDcontributed_to$-250pas2
2022-12-07WINREDcontributed_to$-10pas2
2022-12-07WINREDcontributed_to$-100pas2
2022-12-06WINREDcontributed_to$-10pas2
2022-12-06WINREDcontributed_to$-2,100pas2
2022-12-06WINREDcontributed_to$-2,900pas2
2022-12-05WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-12-05WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-12-05WINREDcontributed_to$-100pas2
2022-12-04WINREDcontributed_to$-100pas2
2022-12-03WINREDcontributed_to$-100pas2
2022-12-03WINREDcontributed_to$-50pas2
2022-12-03WINREDcontributed_to$-100pas2
2022-12-02WINREDcontributed_to$-10pas2
2022-12-02WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-12-02WINREDcontributed_to$-20pas2
2022-12-02WINREDcontributed_to$-50pas2
2022-12-02WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-12-01WINREDcontributed_to$-100pas2
2022-11-30WINREDcontributed_to$-100pas2
2022-11-30WINREDcontributed_to$-100pas2
2022-11-30WINREDcontributed_to$-15pas2
2022-11-30WINREDcontributed_to$-100pas2
2022-11-30WINREDcontributed_to$-50pas2
2022-11-30WINREDcontributed_to$-100pas2
2022-11-29WINREDcontributed_to$-2,900pas2
2022-11-29WINREDcontributed_to$-100pas2
2022-11-29WINREDcontributed_to$-100pas2
2022-11-29WINREDcontributed_to$-200pas2
2022-11-28WINREDcontributed_to$-50pas2
2022-11-28WINREDcontributed_to$-50pas2
2022-11-27WINREDcontributed_to$-100pas2
2022-11-27WINREDcontributed_to$-50pas2
2022-11-26WINREDcontributed_to$-100pas2
2022-11-25WINREDcontributed_to$-100pas2
2022-11-23WINREDcontributed_to$-50pas2
2022-11-23WINREDcontributed_to$-50pas2
2022-11-23WINREDcontributed_to$-10pas2
2022-11-23WINREDcontributed_to$-5pas2
2022-11-23WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-11-23WINREDcontributed_to$-50pas2

Outbound (1)

datetypetoamountrolesource
β€”principal_candidate_ofKELLY FOR ALASKAβ€”candidate_committees

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