TSHIBAKA, KELLY
R Β· senate
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- FEC candidate id
S2AK00127- Internal id
b85697ee-5457-47dd-ac3e-9d4b58f8ccf6- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents (statewide)
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), Alaska. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 735,706 |
| People | Median age | 36 |
| Income | Median household income | $92,788 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $46,573 |
| Income | In poverty | 10.1% |
| Income | Unemployed | 5.5% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.433 |
| Race | White alone | 59.6% |
| Race | Black alone | 3.0% |
| Race | Asian alone | 6.5% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 7.3% |
| Race | Two or more races | 13.6% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 7.7% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 84.9% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 3.3% |
| Education | High school or higher | 60.5% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 31.7% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 11.8% |
| Household | Family households | 63.9% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.61 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 34.4% |
| Housing | Median home value | $352,900 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,419 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 63.2% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 1.5% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 5.7% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 17.6% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 10.8% |
| Health | With a disability | 13.6% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 91.9% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 5.8% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 65.0% |
| Commute | Public transit | 1.0% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 9.8% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0 | $3,589 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 2024 | $9,947 | $57,610 | $3,589 | $0 | $1,144 |
| 2022 | $6,011,432 | $5,960,180 | $51,252 | $1,814 | $5,733,782 |
Elections
- 2022 general senate Β· AK-S β running
- 2022 general senate Β· AK-S β lost_general
- 2022 general senate Β· AK-S β running
- 2022 general senate Β· AK-S β running
- 2022 general senate Β· AK-S β running
- 2022 general senate Β· AK-S β lost_general
- 2022 general senate Β· AK-S β lost_general
- 2022 general senate Β· AK-S β running
- 2022 general senate Β· AK-S β lost_general
- 2022 general senate Β· AK-S β lost_general
Committees
- KELLY FOR ALASKA β principal Β· type S
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 23.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
| senate race | -2.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Independent expenditures
Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).
| Cycle | Support | Oppose | IEs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $792,502 | $8,474,019 | 73 |
Recent (latest 25)
| Date | Spender | For / against | Amount | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | PRIORITIES USA ACTION | oppose | $902 | Ad Production (Estimate) |
| β | PRIORITIES USA ACTION | oppose | $7,143 | Ad Buy (Estimate) |
| β | PRIORITIES USA ACTION | oppose | $820 | Ad Production (Estimate) |
| β | PRIORITIES USA ACTION | oppose | $759 | Ad Production (Estimate) |
| 2022-11-01 | KEEPING AMERICA GREAT PAC | support | $4,996 | TV Advertising |
| 2022-10-26 | ALASKA FIRST | support | $3,000 | PRODUCTION COST: TEXTS AND DIGITAL AD |
| 2022-10-21 | ALASKA FIRST | support | $62,500 | GOTV VOTER PHONE CALLS AND TEXTS |
| 2022-10-21 | ALASKA FIRST | support | $54,978 | DIRECT MAIL: PRINTING AND POSTAGE |
| 2022-10-21 | ALASKA FIRST | support | $3,970 | PRODUCTION COST: TV AD |
| 2022-10-20 | ALASKA FIRST | support | $600,000 | PLACED MEDIA: TV |
| 2022-10-20 | SLF PAC | oppose | $615,520 | TV/MEDIA PLACEMENT |
| 2022-10-18 | SLF PAC | oppose | $3,000 | WEB AD |
| 2022-10-18 | SLF PAC | oppose | $10,528 | TV/MEDIA PRODUCTION |
| 2022-10-18 | SLF PAC | oppose | $1,182 | RADIO PRODUCTION |
| 2022-10-18 | SLF PAC | oppose | $70,448 | ONLINE ADVERTISING |
| 2022-10-14 | SLF PAC | oppose | $107,342 | POSTAGE / PRINTING / PRODUCTION |
| 2022-10-12 | SLF PAC | oppose | $914,173 | TV/MEDIA PLACEMENT |
| 2022-10-12 | SLF PAC | oppose | $60,901 | POSTAGE / PRINTING / PRODUCTION |
| 2022-10-12 | PATRIOT FREEDOM PAC INC | support | $409 | Printing |
| 2022-10-12 | SLF PAC | oppose | $53,352 | RADIO PLACEMENT |
| 2022-10-11 | SLF PAC | oppose | $11,062 | TV/MEDIA PRODUCTION |
| 2022-10-11 | SLF PAC | oppose | $3,000 | WEB AD |
| 2022-10-11 | SLF PAC | oppose | $70,406 | ONLINE ADVERTISING |
| 2022-10-11 | SLF PAC | oppose | $1,182 | RADIO PRODUCTION |
| 2022-10-10 | PATRIOT FREEDOM PAC INC | support | $200 | Advertising |
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
| Date | From committee | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-12-31 | WINRED | 24K | $-25 |
| 2022-12-30 | WINRED | 24K | $-50 |
| 2022-12-30 | WINRED | 24K | $-40 |
| 2022-12-30 | WINRED | 24K | $-25 |
| 2022-12-29 | WINRED | 24K | $-100 |
| 2022-12-29 | WINRED | 24K | $-25 |
| 2022-12-29 | WINRED | 24K | $-25 |
| 2022-12-28 | WINRED | 24K | $-2,900 |
| 2022-12-28 | WINRED | 24K | $-2,900 |
| 2022-12-28 | WINRED | 24K | $-50 |
| 2022-12-28 | WINRED | 24K | $-723 |
| 2022-12-28 | WINRED | 24K | $-40 |
| 2022-12-27 | WINRED | 24K | $-100 |
| 2022-12-27 | WINRED | 24K | $-280 |
| 2022-12-27 | WINRED | 24K | $-700 |
| 2022-12-27 | WINRED | 24K | $-320 |
| 2022-12-24 | WINRED | 24K | $-100 |
| 2022-12-22 | WINRED | 24K | $-100 |
| 2022-12-22 | WINRED | 24K | $-2,900 |
| 2022-12-22 | WINRED | 24K | $-15 |
| 2022-12-22 | WINRED | 24K | $-15 |
| 2022-12-22 | WINRED | 24K | $-60 |
| 2022-12-22 | WINRED | 24K | $-100 |
| 2022-12-22 | WINRED | 24K | $-25 |
| 2022-12-20 | WINRED | 24K | $-2,100 |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (100)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | PRIORITIES USA ACTION | opposes_independently | $7,143 | fec_ies | |
| β | PRIORITIES USA ACTION | opposes_independently | $820 | fec_ies | |
| β | PRIORITIES USA ACTION | opposes_independently | $902 | fec_ies | |
| β | PRIORITIES USA ACTION | opposes_independently | $759 | fec_ies | |
| 2022-12-31 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-30 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-40 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-30 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-50 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-30 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-29 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-100 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-29 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-29 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-28 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-723 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-28 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,900 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-28 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-50 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-28 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,900 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-28 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-40 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-27 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-320 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-27 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-280 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-27 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-100 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-27 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-700 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-24 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-100 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-22 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-100 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-22 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-100 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-22 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-15 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-22 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-60 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-22 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-22 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-15 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-22 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,900 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-20 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-100 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-20 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,100 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-20 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-100 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-19 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-525 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-19 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-19 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,000 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-18 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-50 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-18 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-18 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-50 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-18 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-17 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-16 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,900 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-16 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-50 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-16 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-16 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-16 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-15 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-500 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-15 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-50 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-15 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-50 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-14 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-50 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-13 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-50 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-13 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-50 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-13 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-50 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-13 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-50 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-11 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-50 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-09 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-50 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-09 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,500 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-09 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-100 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-09 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,500 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-08 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-500 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-08 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-100 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-08 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-250 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-07 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-07 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-100 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,100 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,900 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-05 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-05 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-05 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-100 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-04 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-100 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-03 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-100 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-03 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-50 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-03 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-100 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-02 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-02 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-02 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-20 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-02 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-50 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-02 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-12-01 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-100 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-30 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-100 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-30 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-100 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-30 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-15 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-30 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-100 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-30 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-50 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-30 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-100 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-29 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,900 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-29 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-100 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-29 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-100 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-29 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-200 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-28 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-50 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-28 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-50 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-27 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-100 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-27 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-50 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-26 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-100 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-25 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-100 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-23 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-50 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-23 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-50 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-23 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-10 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-23 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-23 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-25 | pas2 | |
| 2022-11-23 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-50 | pas2 |
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | KELLY FOR ALASKA | β | candidate_committees |