FLAKE, JEFF
R Β· senate Β· bioguide F000444
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- FEC candidate id
S2AZ00141- Internal id
8e68c832-ee53-4e04-9bae-8f06817cc93a- Status
- incumbent
Who this candidate represents (statewide)
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), Arizona. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 7,378,838 |
| People | Median age | 39 |
| Income | Median household income | $79,964 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $42,503 |
| Income | In poverty | 12.5% |
| Income | Unemployed | 5.1% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.464 |
| Race | White alone | 59.0% |
| Race | Black alone | 4.6% |
| Race | Asian alone | 3.6% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 31.4% |
| Race | Two or more races | 19.5% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 13.0% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 74.3% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 19.3% |
| Education | High school or higher | 56.8% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 33.3% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 13.0% |
| Household | Family households | 64.3% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.53 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 34.1% |
| Housing | Median home value | $394,500 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,543 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 64.2% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 1.5% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 4.3% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 10.6% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 7.9% |
| Health | With a disability | 13.8% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 91.5% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 6.0% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 66.8% |
| Commute | Public transit | 1.1% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 18.4% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0 | $8,300 | $813,052 | $0 | $0 |
| 2024 | $0 | $19,842 | $821,352 | $0 | $0 |
| 2022 | $0 | $253,916 | $841,195 | $0 | $0 |
| 2020 | $4,140 | $30,996 | $1,095,111 | $0 | $0 |
| 2018 | $4,147,037 | $3,605,283 | $1,121,967 | $0 | $2,420,191 |
| 2016 | $1,012,430 | $541,821 | $580,214 | $0 | $580,490 |
| 2014 | $477,315 | $463,704 | $109,605 | $0 | $222,653 |
| 2012 | $9,026,951 | $9,557,420 | $95,995 | $0 | $7,119,692 |
Elections
- 2012 general senate Β· AZ-S β won
- 2012 general senate Β· AZ-S β running
- 2012 general senate Β· AZ-S β running
- 2012 general senate Β· AZ-S β running
- 2012 general senate Β· AZ-S β running
- 2012 general senate Β· AZ-S β won
- 2012 general senate Β· AZ-S β won
- 2012 general senate Β· AZ-S β running
- 2012 general senate Β· AZ-S β won
- 2018 general senate Β· AZ-S β won
- 2018 general senate Β· AZ-S β lost_general
- 2018 general senate Β· AZ-S β running
- 2018 general senate Β· AZ-S β lost_general
- 2018 general senate Β· AZ-S β lost_general
- 2018 general senate Β· AZ-S β running
- 2018 general senate Β· AZ-S β won
- 2018 general senate Β· AZ-S β lost_general
- 2018 general senate Β· AZ-S β won
- 2018 general senate Β· AZ-S β lost_general
- 2018 general senate Β· AZ-S β won
- 2018 general senate Β· AZ-S β running
Committees
- 2017 SENATORS CLASSIC COMMITTEE β joint_fundraising Β· type S
- AYOTTE FLAKE & REHBERG VICTORY COMMITTEE β joint_fundraising Β· type S
- BERG, BROWN, FLAKE VICTORY COMMITTEE β joint_fundraising Β· type N
- FLAKE VICTORY COMMITTEE β joint_fundraising Β· type N
- FLAKE VICTORY COMMITTEE β joint_fundraising Β· type N
- FOUNDERS' COMMITTEE β joint_fundraising Β· type N
- GOOD GOVERNMENT FUND; THE β joint_fundraising Β· type N
- JEFF FLAKE FOR US SENATE INC. β principal Β· type S
- PROTECTING THE MAJORITY COMMITTEE β joint_fundraising Β· type N
Recent votes
No votes on file.
Sponsored & cosponsored bills
No sponsorships on file.
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 99.0%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| incumbent | +78.0% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
| senate race | -2.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (9)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | PROTECTING THE MAJORITY COMMITTEE | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | 2017 SENATORS CLASSIC COMMITTEE | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | FLAKE VICTORY COMMITTEE | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | GOOD GOVERNMENT FUND; THE | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | AYOTTE FLAKE & REHBERG VICTORY COMMITTEE | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | BERG, BROWN, FLAKE VICTORY COMMITTEE | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | THE FOUNDERS COMMITTEE | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | FLAKE VICTORY COMMITTEE | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | principal_candidate_of | JEFF FLAKE FOR US SENATE INC. | β | candidate_committees |