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BRNOVICH, MARK MR.

R Β· senate

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FEC candidate id
S2AZ00356
Internal id
76621b0d-bb18-4933-9f53-f27fb3556e69
Status
challenger

Who this candidate represents (statewide)

Who lives here β€” American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), Arizona. Source.

CategoryMetricValue
PeoplePopulation7,378,838
PeopleMedian age39
IncomeMedian household income$79,964
IncomePer-capita income$42,503
IncomeIn poverty12.5%
IncomeUnemployed5.1%
IncomeGini inequality index0.464
RaceWhite alone59.0%
RaceBlack alone4.6%
RaceAsian alone3.6%
RaceHispanic or Latino31.4%
RaceTwo or more races19.5%
OriginForeign-born13.0%
LanguageSpeaks English only at home74.3%
LanguageSpeaks Spanish at home19.3%
EducationHigh school or higher56.8%
EducationBachelor's or higher33.3%
EducationAdvanced degree13.0%
HouseholdFamily households64.3%
HouseholdAvg household size2.53
HouseholdNever married (15+)34.1%
HousingMedian home value$394,500
HousingMedian gross rent$1,543
HousingSingle-family detached64.2%
HousingBuilt before 19401.5%
HousingOvercrowded (>1 per room)4.3%
HousingVacant units10.6%
ServiceVeterans (18+)7.9%
HealthWith a disability13.8%
ConnectivityHouseholds with broadband91.5%
ConnectivityHouseholds with no internet6.0%
CommuteDrove alone66.8%
CommutePublic transit1.1%
CommuteWorked from home18.4%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

CycleRaisedSpentCash on handDebtsIndiv. contribs.
2026$25$1$5,181$463,173$25
2024$79$167$5,157$463,173$15
2022$3,184,415$3,179,169$5,245$460,563$3,138,704

Elections

Committees

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 23.1%

FeatureΞ” P(win)
Base rate (historical)15.1%
R (major party)+10.0%
senate race-2.0%

Baseline model (incumbency Γ— party Γ— office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

CycleSupportOpposeIEs
2022$909,591$993,88732

Recent (latest 25)

DateSpenderFor / againstAmountPurpose
2022-07-31SAVING ARIZONA PACoppose$7,211P2P MESSAGES
2022-07-30ADVANCING ARIZONA FORWARDsupport$26,472Text messages
2022-07-25ADVANCING ARIZONA FORWARDsupport$50,000Media placement
2022-07-25SAVING ARIZONA PACoppose$18,142PRINTING / POSTAGE
2022-07-22ADVANCING ARIZONA FORWARDsupport$40,000Media placement
2022-07-20ADVANCING ARIZONA FORWARDsupport$24,515Direct mail
2022-07-19ADVANCING ARIZONA FORWARDsupport$24,515Direct mail
2022-07-19ADVANCING ARIZONA FORWARDsupport$50,000Media Placement
2022-07-18SAVING ARIZONA PACoppose$1,125PRINTING / POSTAGE
2022-07-15ADVANCING ARIZONA FORWARDsupport$24,515Direct mail
2022-07-13SAVING ARIZONA PACoppose$17,432PRINTING / POSTAGE
2022-07-08ADVANCING ARIZONA FORWARDsupport$49,030Direct mail
2022-07-07ADVANCING ARIZONA FORWARDsupport$75,000Digital media placement
2022-07-07ADVANCING ARIZONA FORWARDsupport$49,030Direct Mail
2022-07-07ADVANCING ARIZONA FORWARDsupport$49,030Direct mail
2022-07-06ADVANCING ARIZONA FORWARDsupport$25,000Media production
2022-06-30ADVANCING ARIZONA FORWARDsupport$225,000Media Placement
2022-05-06ADVANCING ARIZONA FORWARDsupport$4,064Media production
2022-04-29ADVANCING ARIZONA FORWARDsupport$94,741Media Placement
2022-04-13ADVANCING ARIZONA FORWARDsupport$3,939Media Production
2022-04-12ADVANCING ARIZONA FORWARDsupport$94,741Media Placement
2021-10-26SAVING ARIZONA PACoppose$4,044DIGITAL MEDIA PLACEMENT
2021-10-25SAVING ARIZONA PACoppose$72,300MEDIA PLACEMENT
2021-10-12SAVING ARIZONA PACoppose$28,215DIGITAL MEDIA BUY
2021-10-04SAVING ARIZONA PACoppose$385,000MEDIA PLACEMENT

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

DateFrom committeeTypeAmount
2022-12-16WINRED24K$-5
2022-12-16WINRED24K$-5
2022-12-05WINRED24K$-25
2022-11-27WINRED24K$-15
2022-11-24WINRED24K$-1
2022-11-24WINRED24K$-5
2022-11-24WINRED24K$-5
2022-11-24WINRED24K$-1
2022-11-16WINRED24K$-25
2022-11-12WINRED24K$-25
2022-11-11WINRED24K$-25
2022-11-11WINRED24K$-25
2022-11-10WINRED24K$-15
2022-11-10WINRED24K$-25
2022-11-10WINRED24K$-15
2022-11-10WINRED24K$-35
2022-11-06WINRED24K$-5
2022-11-06WINRED24K$-10
2022-11-06WINRED24K$-10
2022-11-06WINRED24K$-35
2022-11-06WINRED24K$-35
2022-11-06WINRED24K$-10
2022-11-06WINRED24K$-10
2022-11-02WINRED24K$-35
2022-11-02WINRED24K$-35

Connected on the graph

Inbound (100)

datefromtypeamountrolesource
2022-12-16WINREDcontributed_to$-5pas2
2022-12-16WINREDcontributed_to$-5pas2
2022-12-05WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-11-27WINREDcontributed_to$-15pas2
2022-11-24WINREDcontributed_to$-1pas2
2022-11-24WINREDcontributed_to$-5pas2
2022-11-24WINREDcontributed_to$-1pas2
2022-11-24WINREDcontributed_to$-5pas2
2022-11-16WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-11-12WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-11-11WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-11-11WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-11-10WINREDcontributed_to$-15pas2
2022-11-10WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-11-10WINREDcontributed_to$-15pas2
2022-11-10WINREDcontributed_to$-35pas2
2022-11-06WINREDcontributed_to$-35pas2
2022-11-06WINREDcontributed_to$-10pas2
2022-11-06WINREDcontributed_to$-10pas2
2022-11-06WINREDcontributed_to$-10pas2
2022-11-06WINREDcontributed_to$-10pas2
2022-11-06WINREDcontributed_to$-5pas2
2022-11-06WINREDcontributed_to$-35pas2
2022-11-02WINREDcontributed_to$-35pas2
2022-11-02WINREDcontributed_to$-35pas2
2022-10-28WINREDcontributed_to$-10pas2
2022-10-28WINREDcontributed_to$-20pas2
2022-10-28WINREDcontributed_to$-20pas2
2022-10-28WINREDcontributed_to$-5pas2
2022-10-28WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-10-28WINREDcontributed_to$-20pas2
2022-10-23WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-10-23WINREDcontributed_to$-5pas2
2022-10-23WINREDcontributed_to$-5pas2
2022-10-20WINREDcontributed_to$-5pas2
2022-10-15WINREDcontributed_to$-10pas2
2022-10-15WINREDcontributed_to$-5pas2
2022-10-15WINREDcontributed_to$-15pas2
2022-10-13WINREDcontributed_to$-35pas2
2022-10-13WINREDcontributed_to$-5pas2
2022-10-13WINREDcontributed_to$-9pas2
2022-10-13WINREDcontributed_to$-10pas2
2022-10-13WINREDcontributed_to$-10pas2
2022-10-13WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-10-05WINREDcontributed_to$-50pas2
2022-10-05WINREDcontributed_to$-5pas2
2022-10-05WINREDcontributed_to$-35pas2
2022-10-05WINREDcontributed_to$-10pas2
2022-10-05WINREDcontributed_to$-5pas2
2022-10-05WINREDcontributed_to$-5pas2
2022-10-05WINREDcontributed_to$-10pas2
2022-10-05WINREDcontributed_to$-35pas2
2022-10-05WINREDcontributed_to$-50pas2
2022-10-05WINREDcontributed_to$-35pas2
2022-10-05WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-10-01WINREDcontributed_to$-35pas2
2022-10-01WINREDcontributed_to$-35pas2
2022-10-01WINREDcontributed_to$-35pas2
2022-10-01WINREDcontributed_to$-35pas2
2022-09-21WINREDcontributed_to$-35pas2
2022-09-21WINREDcontributed_to$-35pas2
2022-09-16WINREDcontributed_to$-100pas2
2022-09-12WINREDcontributed_to$-2pas2
2022-09-12WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-09-12WINREDcontributed_to$-1pas2
2022-09-12WINREDcontributed_to$-3pas2
2022-09-12WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-09-12WINREDcontributed_to$-10pas2
2022-09-07WINREDcontributed_to$-35pas2
2022-09-06WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-09-05WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-09-05WINREDcontributed_to$-20pas2
2022-09-05WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-09-05WINREDcontributed_to$-20pas2
2022-09-04WINREDcontributed_to$-35pas2
2022-09-04WINREDcontributed_to$-15pas2
2022-09-04WINREDcontributed_to$-20pas2
2022-09-04WINREDcontributed_to$-15pas2
2022-09-04WINREDcontributed_to$-15pas2
2022-09-04WINREDcontributed_to$-35pas2
2022-09-04WINREDcontributed_to$-10pas2
2022-09-04WINREDcontributed_to$-35pas2
2022-09-04WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-09-04WINREDcontributed_to$-15pas2
2022-09-04WINREDcontributed_to$-10pas2
2022-09-04WINREDcontributed_to$-15pas2
2022-09-04WINREDcontributed_to$-15pas2
2022-09-04WINREDcontributed_to$-35pas2
2022-09-02WINREDcontributed_to$-100pas2
2022-09-01WINREDcontributed_to$-2pas2
2022-09-01WINREDcontributed_to$-10pas2
2022-09-01WINREDcontributed_to$-15pas2
2022-09-01WINREDcontributed_to$-5pas2
2022-09-01WINREDcontributed_to$-15pas2
2022-09-01WINREDcontributed_to$-2pas2
2022-09-01WINREDcontributed_to$-2pas2
2022-09-01WINREDcontributed_to$-5pas2
2022-08-31WINREDcontributed_to$-50pas2
2022-08-27WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-08-24WINREDcontributed_to$-50pas2

Outbound (1)

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