ELIST, JON

R · senate

FEC candidate id: S2CA01250
Internal id: 2aeed489-292e-4753-92ba-649e1234ac04
Status: challenger

Who this candidate represents (statewide)

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), California. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	39,287,377
People	Median age	38
Income	Median household income	$99,122
Income	Per-capita income	$49,513
Income	In poverty	12.0%
Income	Unemployed	6.5%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.489
Race	White alone	39.7%
Race	Black alone	5.4%
Race	Asian alone	15.5%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	40.2%
Race	Two or more races	19.2%
Origin	Foreign-born	27.0%
Language	Speaks English only at home	55.6%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	28.3%
Education	High school or higher	57.5%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	37.1%
Education	Advanced degree	14.4%
Household	Family households	67.8%
Household	Avg household size	2.84
Household	Never married (15+)	38.2%
Housing	Median home value	$734,700
Housing	Median gross rent	$2,036
Housing	Single-family detached	57.0%
Housing	Built before 1940	5.4%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	8.2%
Housing	Vacant units	7.5%
Service	Veterans (18+)	4.3%
Health	With a disability	11.6%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	93.5%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	4.6%
Commute	Drove alone	65.7%
Commute	Public transit	2.9%
Commute	Worked from home	17.2%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2022	$516,699	$516,699	$0	$0	$316,699

Elections

2022 general senate · CA-S — lost_general
2022 general senate · CA-S — lost_general
2022 general senate · CA-S — lost_general
2022 general senate · CA-S — lost_general
2022 general senate · CA-S — lost_general

Committees

ELIST FOR US SENATE — principal · type S

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 23.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%
senate race	-2.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2022	$350,523	$0	10

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
2022-05-31	FRIENDS OF CALIFORNIAS FUTURE COMMITTEE	support	$48,673	Digital Ads
2022-05-27	FRIENDS OF CALIFORNIAS FUTURE COMMITTEE	support	$10,000	Digital Ads
2022-05-13	FRIENDS OF CALIFORNIAS FUTURE COMMITTEE	support	$6,850	Radio Ads
2022-05-10	FRIENDS OF CALIFORNIAS FUTURE COMMITTEE	support	$20,000	Digital Ads
2022-04-29	FRIENDS OF CALIFORNIAS FUTURE COMMITTEE	support	$50,000	Direct Mail
2022-04-25	FRIENDS OF CALIFORNIAS FUTURE COMMITTEE	support	$30,000	Direct Mail
2022-04-21	FRIENDS OF CALIFORNIAS FUTURE COMMITTEE	support	$20,000	Digital Ads
2022-04-11	FRIENDS OF CALIFORNIAS FUTURE COMMITTEE	support	$75,000	Digital Ads
2022-04-07	FRIENDS OF CALIFORNIAS FUTURE COMMITTEE	support	$30,000	Digital Ads
2022-04-07	FRIENDS OF CALIFORNIAS FUTURE COMMITTEE	support	$60,000	Direct Mail

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2022-05-31	FRIENDS OF CALIFORNIAS FUTURE COMMITTEE	24E	$48,672
2022-05-27	FRIENDS OF CALIFORNIAS FUTURE COMMITTEE	24E	$10,000
2022-05-13	FRIENDS OF CALIFORNIAS FUTURE COMMITTEE	24E	$6,850
2022-05-10	FRIENDS OF CALIFORNIAS FUTURE COMMITTEE	24E	$20,000
2022-04-29	FRIENDS OF CALIFORNIAS FUTURE COMMITTEE	24E	$50,000
2022-04-25	FRIENDS OF CALIFORNIAS FUTURE COMMITTEE	24E	$30,000
2022-04-21	FRIENDS OF CALIFORNIAS FUTURE COMMITTEE	24E	$20,000
2022-04-11	FRIENDS OF CALIFORNIAS FUTURE COMMITTEE	24E	$75,000
2022-04-07	FRIENDS OF CALIFORNIAS FUTURE COMMITTEE	24E	$60,000
2022-04-07	FRIENDS OF CALIFORNIAS FUTURE COMMITTEE	24E	$30,000

Connected on the graph

Inbound (20)

date	from	type	amount	source
2022-05-31	FRIENDS OF CALIFORNIAS FUTURE COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$48,672	pas2
2022-05-31	FRIENDS OF CALIFORNIAS FUTURE COMMITTEE	supports_independently	$48,673	fec_ies
2022-05-27	FRIENDS OF CALIFORNIAS FUTURE COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$10,000	pas2
2022-05-27	FRIENDS OF CALIFORNIAS FUTURE COMMITTEE	supports_independently	$10,000	fec_ies
2022-05-13	FRIENDS OF CALIFORNIAS FUTURE COMMITTEE	supports_independently	$6,850	fec_ies
2022-05-13	FRIENDS OF CALIFORNIAS FUTURE COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$6,850	pas2
2022-05-10	FRIENDS OF CALIFORNIAS FUTURE COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$20,000	pas2
2022-05-10	FRIENDS OF CALIFORNIAS FUTURE COMMITTEE	supports_independently	$20,000	fec_ies
2022-04-29	FRIENDS OF CALIFORNIAS FUTURE COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$50,000	pas2
2022-04-29	FRIENDS OF CALIFORNIAS FUTURE COMMITTEE	supports_independently	$50,000	fec_ies
2022-04-25	FRIENDS OF CALIFORNIAS FUTURE COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$30,000	pas2
2022-04-25	FRIENDS OF CALIFORNIAS FUTURE COMMITTEE	supports_independently	$30,000	fec_ies
2022-04-21	FRIENDS OF CALIFORNIAS FUTURE COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$20,000	pas2
2022-04-21	FRIENDS OF CALIFORNIAS FUTURE COMMITTEE	supports_independently	$20,000	fec_ies
2022-04-11	FRIENDS OF CALIFORNIAS FUTURE COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$75,000	pas2
2022-04-11	FRIENDS OF CALIFORNIAS FUTURE COMMITTEE	supports_independently	$75,000	fec_ies
2022-04-07	FRIENDS OF CALIFORNIAS FUTURE COMMITTEE	supports_independently	$60,000	fec_ies
2022-04-07	FRIENDS OF CALIFORNIAS FUTURE COMMITTEE	supports_independently	$30,000	fec_ies
2022-04-07	FRIENDS OF CALIFORNIAS FUTURE COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$30,000	pas2
2022-04-07	FRIENDS OF CALIFORNIAS FUTURE COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$60,000	pas2

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	ELIST FOR US SENATE	—		candidate_committees

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