RYAN, TIMOTHY

D · senate

FEC candidate id: S2OH00402
Internal id: c769b36b-824d-4634-aa21-a3c67ff78008
Status: open seat

Who this candidate represents (statewide)

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), Ohio. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	11,810,293
People	Median age	40
Income	Median household income	$71,389
Income	Per-capita income	$40,552
Income	In poverty	13.3%
Income	Unemployed	4.8%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.467
Race	White alone	76.8%
Race	Black alone	12.2%
Race	Asian alone	2.6%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	4.8%
Race	Two or more races	6.5%
Origin	Foreign-born	5.2%
Language	Speaks English only at home	92.0%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	2.6%
Education	High school or higher	63.6%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	31.5%
Education	Advanced degree	12.2%
Household	Family households	61.2%
Household	Avg household size	2.37
Household	Never married (15+)	33.6%
Housing	Median home value	$214,800
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,034
Housing	Single-family detached	68.8%
Housing	Built before 1940	5.6%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	1.5%
Housing	Vacant units	8.1%
Service	Veterans (18+)	6.6%
Health	With a disability	14.4%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	90.1%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	7.4%
Commute	Drove alone	75.1%
Commute	Public transit	1.0%
Commute	Worked from home	13.0%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2022	$57,770,820	$57,714,280	$56,540	$65,629	$52,143,312

Elections

2022 general senate · OH-S — lost_general
2022 general senate · OH-S — running
2022 general senate · OH-S — lost_general
2022 general senate · OH-S — running
2022 general senate · OH-S — running
2022 general senate · OH-S — lost_general
2022 general senate · OH-S — lost_general
2022 general senate · OH-S — lost_general
2022 general senate · OH-S — lost_general
2022 general senate · OH-S — lost_general

Committees

WORKERS FIRST PAC — principal · type N
WORKERS FIRST PAC — independent · type N

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 18.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
D (major party)	+10.0%
open seat	-5.0%
senate race	-2.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2024	$64,677	$3,125	9
2022	$3,966,695	$35,316,211	419

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
—	JDCA PAC	support	$1,157	Digital Advertising (Estimate)
—	BLACK VOTERS MATTER ACTION PAC	support	$30,000	Radio Advertising
—	BLACK VOTERS MATTER ACTION PAC	support	$600	Graphic Design
—	BLACK VOTERS MATTER ACTION PAC	support	$560	Radio Production
—	BLACK VOTERS MATTER ACTION PAC	support	$30,000	Radio Advertising
—	BLACK VOTERS MATTER ACTION PAC	support	$1,200	Video Production
—	BLACK VOTERS MATTER ACTION PAC	support	$600	Graphic Design
—	BLACK VOTERS MATTER ACTION PAC	support	$560	Radio Production
—	WELCOMEPAC	support	$19	Website Hosting - Estimate
—	WELCOMEPAC	support	$5,000	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	WELCOMEPAC	support	$5,000	Radio Advertising - Estimate
—	WELCOMEPAC	support	$7,479	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	WELCOMEPAC	support	$31	Website Hosting - Estimate
—	WELCOMEPAC	support	$35	Website Hosting - Estimate
—	WELCOMEPAC	support	$37,500	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	WELCOMEPAC	support	$6,222	Text Messaging - Estimate
—	WELCOMEPAC	support	$5,000	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	WELCOMEPAC	support	$37,500	Digital Advertising - Estimate
—	SAVE AMERICA FUND	support	$800	Text Messages
—	LF PAC	support	$6,273	Digital Advertising and Production (estimate)
—	LF PAC	support	$10,823	Digital Advertising (Estimate)
—	LF PAC	support	$6,194	TV Advertising
—	LF PAC	support	$2,925	Digital Advertising (estimate)
—	LF PAC	support	$10,823	Digital Advertising (estimate)
—	LF PAC	support	$344	Digital Advertising (estimate)

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
—	LF PAC	24E	$344
—	LF PAC	24E	$7,095
—	WELCOMEPAC	24E	$37,500
—	LF PAC	24E	$6,268
—	LF PAC	24E	$10,784
—	LET AMERICA VOTE PAC	24E	$1,829
—	RED SENATE	24A	$16
—	GUN RIGHTS AMERICA	24A	$4,500
—	LET AMERICA VOTE PAC	24E	$1,822
—	LF PAC	24E	$10,777
—	RED SENATE	24A	$14
—	WELCOMEPAC	24E	$35
—	RED SENATE	24A	$48
—	RED SENATE	24A	$38
—	END CITIZENS UNITED	24E	$197
—	GUN RIGHTS AMERICA	24A	$90
—	END CITIZENS UNITED	24E	$9,685
—	LET AMERICA VOTE PAC	24E	$311
—	LF PAC	24E	$3,480
—	END CITIZENS UNITED	24E	$643
—	RED SENATE	24A	$19
—	END CITIZENS UNITED	24E	$901
—	#VOTEPROCHOICE PAC	24E	$66
—	RED SENATE	24A	$30
—	LF PAC	24E	$6,194

Top individual donors (2026 cycle)

Via this candidate's principal committee WORKERS FIRST PAC.

Aggregated from FEC Schedule A by donor (name + city + state). Employer + occupation reflect the donor's most recent gift. Source: FEC indiv bulk.

Donor	Employer / occupation	City, ST	Gifts	Total
RIVES, SHARON	NOT EMPLOYED · RETIRED	BRAINTREE, VT	1	$4,900
KALE, BONITA	NOT EMPLOYED · NOT EMPLOYED	EUCLID, OH	1	$2,000

Connected on the graph

Inbound (100)

date	from	type	amount	source
—	END CITIZENS UNITED	contributed_to	$643	pas2
—	END CITIZENS UNITED	contributed_to	$9,685	pas2
—	END CITIZENS UNITED	contributed_to	$197	pas2
—	LF PAC	contributed_to	$7,095	pas2
—	LF PAC	contributed_to	$2,925	pas2
—	LF PAC	contributed_to	$10,777	pas2
—	LF PAC	contributed_to	$1,872	pas2
—	LF PAC	contributed_to	$6,268	pas2
—	END CITIZENS UNITED	contributed_to	$901	pas2
—	LF PAC	contributed_to	$344	pas2
—	LF PAC	contributed_to	$996	pas2
—	LF PAC	contributed_to	$344	pas2
—	LF PAC	contributed_to	$10,784	pas2
—	LF PAC	contributed_to	$2,925	pas2
—	LF PAC	contributed_to	$6,194	pas2
—	LF PAC	contributed_to	$1,267	pas2
—	LET AMERICA VOTE PAC	contributed_to	$1,829	pas2
—	LET AMERICA VOTE PAC	contributed_to	$1,822	pas2
—	GIVEGREEN UNITED ACTION	contributed_to	$32	pas2
—	GIVEGREEN UNITED ACTION	contributed_to	$160	pas2
—	WELCOMEPAC	contributed_to	$37,500	pas2
—	WELCOMEPAC	contributed_to	$35	pas2
—	RED SENATE	contributed_to	$16	pas2
—	LET AMERICA VOTE PAC	contributed_to	$311	pas2
—	BLACK VOTERS MATTER FUND INC	contributed_to	$600	pas2
—	BLACK VOTERS MATTER FUND INC	contributed_to	$1,200	pas2
—	RED SENATE	contributed_to	$30	pas2
—	RED SENATE	contributed_to	$48	pas2
—	RED SENATE	contributed_to	$38	pas2
—	RED SENATE	contributed_to	$14	pas2
—	RED SENATE	contributed_to	$19	pas2
—	#VOTEPROCHOICE PAC	contributed_to	$66	pas2
—	LF PAC	contributed_to	$3,480	pas2
—	GUN RIGHTS AMERICA	contributed_to	$4,500	pas2
—	GUN RIGHTS AMERICA	contributed_to	$90	pas2
—	JDCA PAC	supports_independently	$1,157	fec_ies
—	BLACK VOTERS MATTER FUND INC	supports_independently	$560	fec_ies
—	BLACK VOTERS MATTER FUND INC	supports_independently	$30,000	fec_ies
—	BLACK VOTERS MATTER FUND INC	supports_independently	$30,000	fec_ies
—	BLACK VOTERS MATTER FUND INC	supports_independently	$560	fec_ies
—	BLACK VOTERS MATTER FUND INC	supports_independently	$600	fec_ies
—	BLACK VOTERS MATTER FUND INC	supports_independently	$600	fec_ies
—	BLACK VOTERS MATTER FUND INC	supports_independently	$1,200	fec_ies
—	WELCOMEPAC	supports_independently	$5,000	fec_ies
—	WELCOMEPAC	supports_independently	$37,500	fec_ies
—	WELCOMEPAC	supports_independently	$19	fec_ies
—	WELCOMEPAC	supports_independently	$6,222	fec_ies
—	WELCOMEPAC	supports_independently	$37,500	fec_ies
—	WELCOMEPAC	supports_independently	$31	fec_ies
—	WELCOMEPAC	supports_independently	$5,000	fec_ies
—	WELCOMEPAC	supports_independently	$5,000	fec_ies
—	WELCOMEPAC	supports_independently	$7,479	fec_ies
—	WELCOMEPAC	supports_independently	$35	fec_ies
—	SAVE AMERICA PAC	supports_independently	$800	fec_ies
—	LF PAC	supports_independently	$4,127	fec_ies
—	LF PAC	supports_independently	$7,114	fec_ies
—	LF PAC	supports_independently	$4,110	fec_ies
—	LF PAC	supports_independently	$600	fec_ies
—	LF PAC	supports_independently	$2,925	fec_ies
—	LF PAC	supports_independently	$36,687	fec_ies
—	LF PAC	supports_independently	$998	fec_ies
—	LF PAC	supports_independently	$1,872	fec_ies
—	LF PAC	supports_independently	$4,554	fec_ies
—	LF PAC	supports_independently	$10,823	fec_ies
—	LF PAC	supports_independently	$2,925	fec_ies
—	LF PAC	supports_independently	$6,273	fec_ies
—	LF PAC	supports_independently	$344	fec_ies
—	LF PAC	supports_independently	$344	fec_ies
—	LF PAC	supports_independently	$10,823	fec_ies
—	LF PAC	supports_independently	$6,194	fec_ies
—	LF PAC	supports_independently	$459	fec_ies
—	LF PAC	supports_independently	$1,273	fec_ies
—	LF PAC	supports_independently	$457	fec_ies
—	RED SENATE	opposes_independently	$39	fec_ies
—	RED SENATE	opposes_independently	$20	fec_ies
—	RED SENATE	opposes_independently	$30	fec_ies
—	RED SENATE	opposes_independently	$48	fec_ies
—	RED SENATE	opposes_independently	$14	fec_ies
—	LET AMERICA VOTE PAC	supports_independently	$1,829	fec_ies
—	LET AMERICA VOTE PAC	supports_independently	$2,267	fec_ies
—	LET AMERICA VOTE PAC	supports_independently	$1,822	fec_ies
—	LET AMERICA VOTE PAC	supports_independently	$8,583	fec_ies
—	LET AMERICA VOTE PAC	supports_independently	$15,402	fec_ies
—	LET AMERICA VOTE PAC	supports_independently	$311	fec_ies
—	LET AMERICA VOTE PAC	supports_independently	$303	fec_ies
—	LET AMERICA VOTE PAC	supports_independently	$15,981	fec_ies
—	LET AMERICA VOTE PAC	supports_independently	$1,188	fec_ies
—	JDCA PAC	supports_independently	$52	fec_ies
—	JDCA PAC	supports_independently	$7,430	fec_ies
—	JDCA PAC	supports_independently	$46,183	fec_ies
—	JDCA PAC	supports_independently	$2,485	fec_ies
—	JDCA PAC	supports_independently	$15,390	fec_ies
—	JDCA PAC	supports_independently	$50	fec_ies
—	JDCA PAC	supports_independently	$52	fec_ies
—	JDCA PAC	supports_independently	$7,430	fec_ies
—	JDCA PAC	supports_independently	$46,183	fec_ies
—	JDCA PAC	supports_independently	$0	fec_ies
—	JDCA PAC	supports_independently	$1	fec_ies
—	GUN RIGHTS AMERICA	opposes_independently	$4,500	fec_ies
—	GUN RIGHTS AMERICA	opposes_independently	$90	fec_ies

Outbound (2)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	independent_committee_of	WORKERS FIRST PAC	—		candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	WORKERS FIRST PAC	—		candidate_committees

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