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SMILEY, TIFFANY

R Β· senate

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FEC candidate id
S2WA00387
Internal id
e8bb14ae-4a5a-448c-804d-f02528406367
Status
challenger

Who this candidate represents (statewide)

Who lives here β€” American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), Washington. Source.

CategoryMetricValue
PeoplePopulation7,816,116
PeopleMedian age38
IncomeMedian household income$98,141
IncomePer-capita income$53,744
IncomeIn poverty9.9%
IncomeUnemployed5.0%
IncomeGini inequality index0.469
RaceWhite alone65.8%
RaceBlack alone4.0%
RaceAsian alone9.8%
RaceHispanic or Latino14.4%
RaceTwo or more races12.8%
OriginForeign-born15.4%
LanguageSpeaks English only at home78.6%
LanguageSpeaks Spanish at home9.0%
EducationHigh school or higher61.2%
EducationBachelor's or higher39.6%
EducationAdvanced degree15.6%
HouseholdFamily households63.4%
HouseholdAvg household size2.50
HouseholdNever married (15+)32.6%
HousingMedian home value$564,600
HousingMedian gross rent$1,760
HousingSingle-family detached61.9%
HousingBuilt before 19404.2%
HousingOvercrowded (>1 per room)3.5%
HousingVacant units7.3%
ServiceVeterans (18+)7.8%
HealthWith a disability13.6%
ConnectivityHouseholds with broadband93.6%
ConnectivityHouseholds with no internet4.2%
CommuteDrove alone63.4%
CommutePublic transit3.5%
CommuteWorked from home19.8%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

CycleRaisedSpentCash on handDebtsIndiv. contribs.
2024$943,568$848,077$289,987$257,431$172,947
2022$21,007,198$20,812,701$194,497$1,000,431$20,162,093

Elections

Committees

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 23.1%

FeatureΞ” P(win)
Base rate (historical)15.1%
R (major party)+10.0%
senate race-2.0%

Baseline model (incumbency Γ— party Γ— office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

CycleSupportOpposeIEs
2022$3,750,384$8,979,55567

Recent (latest 25)

DateSpenderFor / againstAmountPurpose
β€”PLANNED PARENTHOOD ALLIANCE PAC , SERVING WA, A…oppose$12Staff Time
β€”PLANNED PARENTHOOD ALLIANCE PAC , SERVING WA, A…oppose$7,689Estimated Cost for Direct Mail Services
β€”PLANNED PARENTHOOD ALLIANCE PAC , SERVING WA, A…oppose$107Staff Time
β€”VOTEVETSoppose$33,322TV and Digital Advertising Production
β€”PLANNED PARENTHOOD ALLIANCE PAC , SERVING WA, A…oppose$3,764Estimated Cost for Direct Mail Services
β€”PLANNED PARENTHOOD ALLIANCE PAC , SERVING WA, A…oppose$399Staff Time, Email and Auto-Dialer
2022-11-07EVERGREEN PRINCIPLES PACsupport$12,600PHONE CALLS
2022-11-05WOMEN VOTEoppose$50,000TV Media Buy
2022-11-05WOMEN VOTEoppose$399,693TV Media Buy
2022-11-05WOMEN VOTEoppose$415TV Media Production
2022-11-04WOMEN VOTEoppose$12,842TV Media Production
2022-11-04WOMEN VOTEoppose$100,000TV Media Buy
2022-11-04ESAFUNDsupport$17,500digital advertising
2022-11-04WOMEN VOTEoppose$200,000Digital Media Buy
2022-11-03WOMEN VOTEoppose$12,349TV Media Production
2022-11-03WOMEN VOTEoppose$350,016TV Media Buy
2022-11-03WOMEN VOTEoppose$575,384TV Media Buy
2022-11-03EVERGREEN PRINCIPLES PACsupport$72,000SMS MESSAGING
2022-11-03EVERGREEN PRINCIPLES PACsupport$54,264PHONE CALLS
2022-11-03WOMEN VOTEoppose$14,460TV Media Production
2022-11-02EVERGREEN PRINCIPLES PACsupport$305,775MEDIA PRODUCTION / MEDIA PLACEMENT
2022-11-01ESAFUNDsupport$49,999voter contact/messaging services
2022-10-31WOMEN VOTEoppose$348,649TV Media Buy
2022-10-28ESAFUNDsupport$22,500voter contact/messaging services
2022-10-28ESAFUNDsupport$11,272media production

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

DateFrom committeeTypeAmount
β€”PLANNED PARENTHOOD ALLIANCE PAC , SERVING WA, A…24A$83
β€”PLANNED PARENTHOOD ALLIANCE PAC , SERVING WA, A…24A$5
β€”PLANNED PARENTHOOD ALLIANCE PAC , SERVING WA, A…24A$68
β€”PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES24A$185
β€”PLANNED PARENTHOOD ALLIANCE PAC , SERVING WA, A…24A$398
β€”PLANNED PARENTHOOD ALLIANCE PAC , SERVING WA, A…24A$106
β€”PLANNED PARENTHOOD ALLIANCE PAC , SERVING WA, A…24A$12
2022-12-31WINRED24K$-25
2022-12-31WINRED24K$-25
2022-12-31WINRED24K$-25
2022-12-31WINRED24K$-40
2022-12-31WINRED24K$-50
2022-12-31WINRED24K$-25
2022-12-31WINRED24K$-50
2022-12-31WINRED24K$-25
2022-12-31WINRED24K$-40
2022-12-31WINRED24K$-8
2022-12-31WINRED24K$-30
2022-12-31WINRED24K$-25
2022-12-31WINRED24K$-25
2022-12-31WINRED24K$-20
2022-12-31WINRED24K$-50
2022-12-31WINRED24K$-30
2022-12-31WINRED24K$-25
2022-12-31WINRED24K$-10

Connected on the graph

Inbound (100)

datefromtypeamountrolesource
β€”PLANNED PARENTHOOD ALLIANCE PAC , SERVING WA, AK, ID, HI, IN, KYcontributed_to$68pas2
β€”PLANNED PARENTHOOD ALLIANCE PAC , SERVING WA, AK, ID, HI, IN, KYcontributed_to$5pas2
β€”PLANNED PARENTHOOD ALLIANCE PAC , SERVING WA, AK, ID, HI, IN, KYcontributed_to$83pas2
β€”PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTEScontributed_to$185pas2
β€”PLANNED PARENTHOOD ALLIANCE PAC , SERVING WA, AK, ID, HI, IN, KYcontributed_to$12pas2
β€”PLANNED PARENTHOOD ALLIANCE PAC , SERVING WA, AK, ID, HI, IN, KYcontributed_to$106pas2
β€”PLANNED PARENTHOOD ALLIANCE PAC , SERVING WA, AK, ID, HI, IN, KYcontributed_to$398pas2
β€”VOTEVETSopposes_independently$33,322fec_ies
β€”PLANNED PARENTHOOD ALLIANCE PAC , SERVING WA, AK, ID, HI, IN, KYopposes_independently$107fec_ies
β€”PLANNED PARENTHOOD ALLIANCE PAC , SERVING WA, AK, ID, HI, IN, KYopposes_independently$399fec_ies
β€”PLANNED PARENTHOOD ALLIANCE PAC , SERVING WA, AK, ID, HI, IN, KYopposes_independently$12fec_ies
β€”PLANNED PARENTHOOD ALLIANCE PAC , SERVING WA, AK, ID, HI, IN, KYopposes_independently$3,764fec_ies
β€”PLANNED PARENTHOOD ALLIANCE PAC , SERVING WA, AK, ID, HI, IN, KYopposes_independently$7,689fec_ies
2022-12-31WINREDcontributed_to$-50pas2
2022-12-31WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-12-31WINREDcontributed_to$-10pas2
2022-12-31WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-12-31WINREDcontributed_to$-20pas2
2022-12-31WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-12-31WINREDcontributed_to$-100pas2
2022-12-31WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-12-31WINREDcontributed_to$-50pas2
2022-12-31WINREDcontributed_to$-40pas2
2022-12-31WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-12-31WINREDcontributed_to$-8pas2
2022-12-31WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-12-31WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-12-31WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-12-31WINREDcontributed_to$-30pas2
2022-12-31WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-12-31WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-12-31WINREDcontributed_to$-1,000pas2
2022-12-31WINREDcontributed_to$-12pas2
2022-12-31WINREDcontributed_to$-20pas2
2022-12-31WINREDcontributed_to$-50pas2
2022-12-31WINREDcontributed_to$-50pas2
2022-12-31WINREDcontributed_to$-40pas2
2022-12-31WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-12-31WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-12-31WINREDcontributed_to$-50pas2
2022-12-31WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-12-31WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-12-31WINREDcontributed_to$-50pas2
2022-12-31WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-12-31WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-12-31WINREDcontributed_to$-50pas2
2022-12-31WINREDcontributed_to$-50pas2
2022-12-31WINREDcontributed_to$-30pas2
2022-12-30WINREDcontributed_to$-100pas2
2022-12-30WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-12-30WINREDcontributed_to$-20pas2
2022-12-30WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-12-29WINREDcontributed_to$-50pas2
2022-12-29WINREDcontributed_to$-100pas2
2022-12-29WINREDcontributed_to$-100pas2
2022-12-29WINREDcontributed_to$-100pas2
2022-12-29WINREDcontributed_to$-8pas2
2022-12-29WINREDcontributed_to$-50pas2
2022-12-29WINREDcontributed_to$-50pas2
2022-12-29WINREDcontributed_to$-90pas2
2022-12-29WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-12-29WINREDcontributed_to$-80pas2
2022-12-29WINREDcontributed_to$-50pas2
2022-12-29WINREDcontributed_to$-100pas2
2022-12-29WINREDcontributed_to$-50pas2
2022-12-29WINREDcontributed_to$-10pas2
2022-12-29WINREDcontributed_to$-100pas2
2022-12-29WINREDcontributed_to$-50pas2
2022-12-29WINREDcontributed_to$-100pas2
2022-12-28WINREDcontributed_to$-20pas2
2022-12-28WINREDcontributed_to$-50pas2
2022-12-28WINREDcontributed_to$-49pas2
2022-12-27WINREDcontributed_to$0pas2
2022-12-27WINREDcontributed_to$-35pas2
2022-12-27WINREDcontributed_to$-5pas2
2022-12-27WINREDcontributed_to$-35pas2
2022-12-26WINREDcontributed_to$-100pas2
2022-12-26WINREDcontributed_to$-50pas2
2022-12-26WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-12-26WINREDcontributed_to$-30pas2
2022-12-26WINREDcontributed_to$-50pas2
2022-12-26WINREDcontributed_to$-30pas2
2022-12-26WINREDcontributed_to$-100pas2
2022-12-26WINREDcontributed_to$-100pas2
2022-12-26WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-12-26WINREDcontributed_to$-60pas2
2022-12-26WINREDcontributed_to$-50pas2
2022-12-26WINREDcontributed_to$-100pas2
2022-12-26WINREDcontributed_to$-100pas2
2022-12-26WINREDcontributed_to$-50pas2
2022-12-26WINREDcontributed_to$-20pas2
2022-12-26WINREDcontributed_to$-80pas2
2022-12-26WINREDcontributed_to$-100pas2
2022-12-26WINREDcontributed_to$-50pas2
2022-12-26WINREDcontributed_to$-50pas2
2022-12-26WINREDcontributed_to$-50pas2
2022-12-26WINREDcontributed_to$-100pas2
2022-12-26WINREDcontributed_to$-50pas2
2022-12-26WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2
2022-12-25WINREDcontributed_to$-25pas2

Outbound (3)

datetypetoamountrolesource
β€”independent_committee_ofSMILEY FOR WASHINGTON INC.β€”candidate_committees
β€”principal_candidate_ofSMILEY FOR WASHINGTON INC.β€”candidate_committees
β€”principal_candidate_ofSMILEY FOR WA SENATE REPUBLICAN NOMINEE FUND 2022β€”candidate_committees

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