BARNES, MANDELA
D Β· senate
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- FEC candidate id
S2WI00441- Internal id
09a63102-a233-4bce-a111-39a9bbaafb06- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents (statewide)
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), Wisconsin. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 5,914,872 |
| People | Median age | 40 |
| Income | Median household income | $77,485 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $43,373 |
| Income | In poverty | 10.6% |
| Income | Unemployed | 3.2% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.444 |
| Race | White alone | 80.1% |
| Race | Black alone | 6.1% |
| Race | Asian alone | 3.0% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 8.0% |
| Race | Two or more races | 7.6% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 5.2% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 91.0% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 4.9% |
| Education | High school or higher | 62.8% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 33.4% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 11.4% |
| Household | Family households | 60.5% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.33 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 33.5% |
| Housing | Median home value | $266,500 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,087 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 66.2% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 5.3% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 1.6% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 10.8% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 6.2% |
| Health | With a disability | 12.3% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 90.3% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 6.9% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 74.4% |
| Commute | Public transit | 1.1% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 13.1% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $42,336,589 | $41,770,890 | $565,700 | $227,000 | $39,399,577 |
Elections
- 2022 general senate Β· WI-S β lost_general
- 2022 general senate Β· WI-S β lost_general
- 2022 general senate Β· WI-S β running
- 2022 general senate Β· WI-S β lost_general
- 2022 general senate Β· WI-S β lost_general
- 2022 general senate Β· WI-S β running
- 2022 general senate Β· WI-S β running
- 2022 general senate Β· WI-S β running
- 2022 general senate Β· WI-S β running
- 2022 general senate Β· WI-S β lost_general
Committees
- THE LONG RUN PAC β principal Β· type Q
- THE LONG RUN PAC β independent Β· type Q
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 23.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
| senate race | -2.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Independent expenditures
Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).
| Cycle | Support | Oppose | IEs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $76,641 | $0 | 3 |
| 2022 | $15,001,670 | $54,174,298 | 1,409 |
Recent (latest 25)
| Date | Spender | For / against | Amount | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | JDCA PAC | support | $16,641 | Digital Advertising |
| β | BLACK VOTERS MATTER ACTION PAC | support | $30,000 | Radio Advertising |
| β | BLACK VOTERS MATTER ACTION PAC | support | $30,000 | Radio Advertising |
| β | VOTEVETS | support | $3,337 | Digital Communications - Estimated Cost |
| β | VOTEVETS | support | $2,092 | Digital Communications - Estimated Cost |
| β | WISCONSIN TRUTH PAC | oppose | $455,903 | Media Placement |
| β | WISCONSIN TRUTH PAC | oppose | $700,000 | Media Placement |
| β | WISCONSIN TRUTH PAC | oppose | $1,889,567 | Media Placement |
| β | WISCONSIN TRUTH PAC | oppose | $25,625 | Media Production |
| β | WISCONSIN TRUTH PAC | oppose | $2,273,584 | Media Placement |
| β | WISCONSIN TRUTH PAC | oppose | $1,096,750 | Media Placement |
| β | WISCONSIN TRUTH PAC | oppose | $23,100 | Media Production |
| β | WISCONSIN TRUTH PAC | oppose | $2,244,884 | Media Placement |
| β | WISCONSIN TRUTH PAC | oppose | $409,534 | Media Placement |
| β | WISCONSIN TRUTH PAC | oppose | $1,323,684 | Media Placement |
| β | WISCONSIN TRUTH PAC | oppose | $24,925 | Media Production |
| β | WISCONSIN TRUTH PAC | oppose | $1,055,159 | Media Placement |
| β | WISCONSIN TRUTH PAC | oppose | $26,450 | Media Production |
| β | WISCONSIN TRUTH PAC | oppose | $1,346,549 | Media Placement |
| β | WISCONSIN TRUTH PAC | oppose | $26,950 | Media Production |
| β | WISCONSIN TRUTH PAC | oppose | $1,414,754 | Media Placement |
| β | WISCONSIN TRUTH PAC | oppose | $25,205 | Media Production |
| β | WISCONSIN TRUTH PAC | oppose | $1,398,349 | Media Placement |
| β | WISCONSIN TRUTH PAC | oppose | $1,408,684 | Media Placement |
| β | WISCONSIN TRUTH PAC | oppose | $1,188,954 | Media Placement |
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
| Date | From committee | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| β | PEOPLE'S ACTION POWER | 24E | $69,638 |
| β | PEOPLE'S ACTION POWER | 24E | $3,583 |
| β | PEOPLE'S ACTION POWER | 24E | $13,800 |
| β | PEOPLE'S ACTION POWER | 24E | $3,000 |
| β | PEOPLE'S ACTION POWER | 24E | $6,267 |
| β | GIVEGREEN UNITED ACTION | 24E | $32 |
| β | COLOROFCHANGE PAC | 24E | $13 |
| β | COLOROFCHANGE PAC | 24E | $25 |
| β | LCV VICTORY FUND | 24E | $53 |
| β | JDCA PAC | 24E | $395 |
| β | BLOC PAC | 24E | $5,275 |
| β | BLOC PAC | 24E | $2,705 |
| β | BLOC PAC | 24E | $5,195 |
| β | BLOC PAC | 24E | $32,065 |
| β | CFFE PAC | 24E | $260,000 |
| β | WOMEN SPEAK OUT PAC | 24A | $2,000 |
| β | WOMEN SPEAK OUT PAC | 24A | $125 |
| β | LCV VICTORY FUND | 24E | $301 |
| β | NEXTGEN CLIMATE ACTION COMMITTEE | 24E | $6,975 |
| β | NEXTGEN CLIMATE ACTION COMMITTEE | 24E | $1,065 |
| β | COMMUNITY CHANGE VOTERS | 24E | $83 |
| β | END CITIZENS UNITED | 24E | $2,468 |
| β | COLOROFCHANGE PAC | 24E | $4,375 |
| β | COLOROFCHANGE PAC | 24E | $4,375 |
| β | COLOROFCHANGE PAC | 24E | $2,500 |
Top individual donors (2026 cycle)
Via this candidate's principal committee THE LONG RUN PAC.
Aggregated from FEC Schedule A by donor (name + city + state). Employer + occupation reflect the donor's most recent gift. Source: FEC indiv bulk.
| Donor | Employer / occupation | City, ST | Gifts | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SCHECHTER, RICHARD | BAINBRIDGE COMPANIES Β· CHAIRMAN | WELLINGTON, FL | 1 | $1,000 |
| SMITH, JOHN | NOT EMPLOYED Β· NOT EMPLOYED | GLADWYNE, PA | 1 | $250 |
| MATICHEK, ROBERT | NOT EMPLOYED Β· NOT EMPLOYED | ELKHORN, WI | 1 | $50 |
| BLUME, WERNER | NOT EMPLOYED Β· RETIRED | OCONOMOWOC, WI | 1 | $30 |
| FARQUHAR, JOHN | GREENSPOON MARDER LLP Β· ATTORNEY | PLANTATION, FL | 1 | $25 |
| EAKE, DAVID | MARSHFIELD CLINIC HEALTH SYSTEM Β· PROGRAMMER | MARSHFIELD, WI | 1 | $25 |
| BRINEGAR, JOHN | NOT EMPLOYED Β· RETIRED | SUTHERLIN, OR | 1 | $25 |
| JONES, LESLIE | NATURAL RESOURCES DEFENSE COUNCIL Β· ADMINISTRATOR | SAN FRANCISCO, CA | 2 | $25 |
| MASON, CORY | NOT EMPLOYED Β· NOT EMPLOYED | MOUNT PLEASANT, WI | 1 | $25 |
| MCBRIDE, ROSIE | UNIVERSITY OF NORTH DAKOTA Β· EDUCATOR | GRAND FORKS, ND | 1 | $25 |
| STEED, PATRICIA | NOT EMPLOYED Β· NOT EMPLOYED | VANCOUVER, WA | 1 | $20 |
| COUNTRYMAN, CAROL | NOT EMPLOYED Β· NOT EMPLOYED | SAUGERTIES, NY | 1 | $20 |
| HANWAY, SUSAN | SELF EMPLOYED Β· THERAPIST | BABCOCK RANCH, FL | 1 | $20 |
| MONT, LAURIE | CONTRA COSTA COUNTY Β· ATTORNEY | PINOLE, CA | 1 | $20 |
| MORETON, BETHANY | DARTMOUTH COLLEGE Β· PROFESSOR | FAIRLEE, VT | 1 | $20 |
| POTTER, GAIL | BOSTON CHILDREN'S HOSPITAL Β· MANAGER | PROVIDENCE, RI | 1 | $20 |
| BLOOMER, ESTER | NOT EMPLOYED Β· NOT EMPLOYED | HUDSON, WI | 1 | $20 |
| HAGEN, KAREN | NOT EMPLOYED Β· NOT EMPLOYED | MILWAUKEE, WI | 1 | $10 |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (100)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | END CITIZENS UNITED | contributed_to | $138 | pas2 | |
| β | END CITIZENS UNITED | contributed_to | $410 | pas2 | |
| β | END CITIZENS UNITED | contributed_to | $3,048 | pas2 | |
| β | END CITIZENS UNITED | contributed_to | $417 | pas2 | |
| β | LCV VICTORY FUND | contributed_to | $86 | pas2 | |
| β | LET AMERICA VOTE PAC | contributed_to | $872 | pas2 | |
| β | LET AMERICA VOTE PAC | contributed_to | $872 | pas2 | |
| β | GIVEGREEN UNITED ACTION | contributed_to | $32 | pas2 | |
| β | END CITIZENS UNITED | contributed_to | $2,468 | pas2 | |
| β | COLOROFCHANGE PAC | contributed_to | $4,375 | pas2 | |
| β | COLOROFCHANGE PAC | contributed_to | $4,375 | pas2 | |
| β | COLOROFCHANGE PAC | contributed_to | $2,500 | pas2 | |
| β | WOMEN SPEAK OUT PAC | contributed_to | $125 | pas2 | |
| β | WOMEN SPEAK OUT PAC | contributed_to | $2,000 | pas2 | |
| β | LCV VICTORY FUND | contributed_to | $301 | pas2 | |
| β | CFFE PAC | contributed_to | $260,000 | pas2 | |
| β | NEXTGEN CLIMATE ACTION COMMITTEE | contributed_to | $1,065 | pas2 | |
| β | NEXTGEN CLIMATE ACTION COMMITTEE | contributed_to | $6,975 | pas2 | |
| β | FOR OUR FUTURE | contributed_to | $546 | pas2 | |
| β | COMMUNITY CHANGE VOTERS | contributed_to | $83 | pas2 | |
| β | LCV VICTORY FUND | contributed_to | $53 | pas2 | |
| β | JDCA PAC | contributed_to | $395 | pas2 | |
| β | BLOC PAC | contributed_to | $5,195 | pas2 | |
| β | BLOC PAC | contributed_to | $5,275 | pas2 | |
| β | BLOC PAC | contributed_to | $2,705 | pas2 | |
| β | BLOC PAC | contributed_to | $32,065 | pas2 | |
| β | COLOROFCHANGE PAC | contributed_to | $13 | pas2 | |
| β | COLOROFCHANGE PAC | contributed_to | $25 | pas2 | |
| β | BLOC PAC | contributed_to | $103 | pas2 | |
| β | FOR OUR FUTURE | contributed_to | $54 | pas2 | |
| β | FOR OUR FUTURE | contributed_to | $126 | pas2 | |
| β | BLOC PAC | contributed_to | $3,459 | pas2 | |
| β | RED SENATE | contributed_to | $434 | pas2 | |
| β | INDIVISIBLE ACTION | contributed_to | $2,172 | pas2 | |
| β | INDIVISIBLE ACTION | contributed_to | $2,171 | pas2 | |
| β | EVERYTOWN FOR GUN SAFETY VICTORY FUND (EVERYTOWN VICTORY FUND) | contributed_to | $215 | pas2 | |
| β | LCV VICTORY FUND | contributed_to | $100,379 | pas2 | |
| β | INDIVISIBLE ACTION | contributed_to | $81 | pas2 | |
| β | PEOPLE'S ACTION POWER | contributed_to | $3,000 | pas2 | |
| β | PEOPLE'S ACTION POWER | contributed_to | $13,800 | pas2 | |
| β | PEOPLE'S ACTION POWER | contributed_to | $3,583 | pas2 | |
| β | PEOPLE'S ACTION POWER | contributed_to | $69,638 | pas2 | |
| β | PEOPLE'S ACTION POWER | contributed_to | $6,267 | pas2 | |
| β | LET AMERICA VOTE PAC | contributed_to | $217 | pas2 | |
| β | INDIVISIBLE ACTION | contributed_to | $5,000 | pas2 | |
| β | INDIVISIBLE ACTION | contributed_to | $190 | pas2 | |
| β | INDIVISIBLE ACTION | contributed_to | $229 | pas2 | |
| β | INDIVISIBLE ACTION | contributed_to | $3,833 | pas2 | |
| β | INDIVISIBLE ACTION | contributed_to | $26 | pas2 | |
| β | VOTEVETS | contributed_to | $2,091 | pas2 | |
| β | VOTEVETS | contributed_to | $3,337 | pas2 | |
| β | SUNRISE PAC | contributed_to | $252 | pas2 | |
| β | SUNRISE PAC | contributed_to | $456 | pas2 | |
| β | COLOROFCHANGE PAC | contributed_to | $2,500 | pas2 | |
| β | COLOROFCHANGE PAC | contributed_to | $4,375 | pas2 | |
| β | COLOROFCHANGE PAC | contributed_to | $4,375 | pas2 | |
| β | JDCA PAC | supports_independently | $16,641 | fec_ies | |
| β | BLACK VOTERS MATTER FUND INC | supports_independently | $30,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | BLACK VOTERS MATTER FUND INC | supports_independently | $30,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | WOMEN SPEAK OUT PAC | opposes_independently | $2,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | WOMEN SPEAK OUT PAC | opposes_independently | $3,750 | fec_ies | |
| β | WOMEN SPEAK OUT PAC | opposes_independently | $12,500 | fec_ies | |
| β | WOMEN SPEAK OUT PAC | opposes_independently | $375 | fec_ies | |
| β | WOMEN SPEAK OUT PAC | opposes_independently | $250 | fec_ies | |
| β | WOMEN SPEAK OUT PAC | opposes_independently | $2,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | WOMEN SPEAK OUT PAC | opposes_independently | $750 | fec_ies | |
| β | WOMEN SPEAK OUT PAC | opposes_independently | $5,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | WISCONSIN TRUTH PAC | opposes_independently | $1,323,684 | fec_ies | |
| β | WISCONSIN TRUTH PAC | opposes_independently | $409,534 | fec_ies | |
| β | WISCONSIN TRUTH PAC | opposes_independently | $24,925 | fec_ies | |
| β | WISCONSIN TRUTH PAC | opposes_independently | $23,100 | fec_ies | |
| β | WISCONSIN TRUTH PAC | opposes_independently | $1,096,750 | fec_ies | |
| β | WISCONSIN TRUTH PAC | opposes_independently | $2,244,884 | fec_ies | |
| β | WISCONSIN TRUTH PAC | opposes_independently | $1,055,159 | fec_ies | |
| β | WISCONSIN TRUTH PAC | opposes_independently | $1,889,567 | fec_ies | |
| β | WISCONSIN TRUTH PAC | opposes_independently | $700,000 | fec_ies | |
| β | WISCONSIN TRUTH PAC | opposes_independently | $25,625 | fec_ies | |
| β | VOTEVETS | supports_independently | $2,092 | fec_ies | |
| β | VOTEVETS | supports_independently | $3,337 | fec_ies | |
| β | WISCONSIN TRUTH PAC | opposes_independently | $455,903 | fec_ies | |
| β | WISCONSIN TRUTH PAC | opposes_independently | $2,273,584 | fec_ies | |
| β | WISCONSIN TRUTH PAC | opposes_independently | $26,450 | fec_ies | |
| β | WISCONSIN TRUTH PAC | opposes_independently | $1,346,549 | fec_ies | |
| β | WISCONSIN TRUTH PAC | opposes_independently | $28,600 | fec_ies | |
| β | WOMEN SPEAK OUT PAC | opposes_independently | $375 | fec_ies | |
| β | WISCONSIN TRUTH PAC | opposes_independently | $1,346,549 | fec_ies | |
| β | WISCONSIN TRUTH PAC | opposes_independently | $1,188,954 | fec_ies | |
| β | WISCONSIN TRUTH PAC | opposes_independently | $2,997 | fec_ies | |
| β | WISCONSIN TRUTH PAC | opposes_independently | $1,248,549 | fec_ies | |
| β | WISCONSIN TRUTH PAC | opposes_independently | $1,414,754 | fec_ies | |
| β | WISCONSIN TRUTH PAC | opposes_independently | $25,205 | fec_ies | |
| β | WISCONSIN TRUTH PAC | opposes_independently | $1,398,349 | fec_ies | |
| β | WISCONSIN TRUTH PAC | opposes_independently | $26,950 | fec_ies | |
| β | WISCONSIN TRUTH PAC | opposes_independently | $1,408,684 | fec_ies | |
| β | SUNRISE PAC | supports_independently | $456 | fec_ies | |
| β | SUNRISE PAC | supports_independently | $3,718 | fec_ies | |
| β | SUNRISE PAC | supports_independently | $4,282 | fec_ies | |
| β | SUNRISE PAC | supports_independently | $928 | fec_ies | |
| β | SUNRISE PAC | supports_independently | $250 | fec_ies | |
| β | SUNRISE PAC | supports_independently | $446 | fec_ies |
Outbound (2)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | independent_committee_of | THE LONG RUN PAC | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | principal_candidate_of | THE LONG RUN PAC | β | candidate_committees |