FRASER, JOSEPH
R Β· senate
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- FEC candidate id
S4MN00510- Internal id
d9371f97-16db-4721-bb98-b146e5854d74- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents (statewide)
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), Minnesota. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 5,739,445 |
| People | Median age | 39 |
| Income | Median household income | $89,062 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $48,237 |
| Income | In poverty | 9.3% |
| Income | Unemployed | 4.1% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.453 |
| Race | White alone | 77.1% |
| Race | Black alone | 7.0% |
| Race | Asian alone | 5.1% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 6.4% |
| Race | Two or more races | 7.0% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 8.7% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 87.6% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 4.2% |
| Education | High school or higher | 62.7% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 39.4% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 13.8% |
| Household | Family households | 62.3% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.43 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 33.4% |
| Housing | Median home value | $329,300 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,280 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 66.0% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 4.1% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 2.3% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 9.3% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 5.9% |
| Health | With a disability | 11.6% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 91.6% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 5.5% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 68.9% |
| Commute | Public transit | 1.8% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 17.6% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $30 | $9,904 | $8,693 | $198,899 | $30 |
| 2024 | $77,213 | $58,666 | $18,547 | $198,899 | $75,713 |
Elections
- 2024 general senate Β· MN-S β running
- 2024 general senate Β· MN-S β lost_general
- 2024 general senate Β· MN-S β running
- 2024 general senate Β· MN-S β lost_general
- 2024 general senate Β· MN-S β lost_general
- 2024 general senate Β· MN-S β lost_general
- 2024 general senate Β· MN-S β running
- 2024 general senate Β· MN-S β running
- 2024 general senate Β· MN-S β lost_general
Committees
- FRIENDS OF JOE FRASER β principal Β· type S
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 23.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
| senate race | -2.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | FRIENDS OF JOE FRASER | β | candidate_committees |