GILLESPIE, EDWARD W

R · senate

FEC candidate id: S4VA00155
Internal id: 96cd563b-b09e-4980-853f-43c9ff3273ae
Status: challenger

Who this candidate represents (statewide)

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), Virginia. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	8,705,170
People	Median age	39
Income	Median household income	$93,170
Income	Per-capita income	$50,666
Income	In poverty	9.9%
Income	Unemployed	4.1%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.471
Race	White alone	60.2%
Race	Black alone	18.6%
Race	Asian alone	6.9%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	11.0%
Race	Two or more races	9.5%
Origin	Foreign-born	13.1%
Language	Speaks English only at home	82.6%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	7.9%
Education	High school or higher	66.0%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	42.2%
Education	Advanced degree	18.5%
Household	Family households	64.8%
Household	Avg household size	2.52
Household	Never married (15+)	33.2%
Housing	Median home value	$383,700
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,579
Housing	Single-family detached	61.3%
Housing	Built before 1940	4.2%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	2.1%
Housing	Vacant units	8.7%
Service	Veterans (18+)	9.4%
Health	With a disability	12.5%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	91.0%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	6.7%
Commute	Drove alone	67.6%
Commute	Public transit	2.3%
Commute	Worked from home	18.3%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2020	$0	$3,127	$0	$0	$0
2018	$0	$10,107	$3,127	$135,000	$0
2016	$132,980	$138,869	$13,234	$135,000	$62,275
2014	$7,894,669	$7,875,545	$19,123	$250,000	$6,062,299

Elections

2014 general senate · VA-S — running
2014 general senate · VA-S — running
2014 general senate · VA-S — running
2014 general senate · VA-S — lost_general
2014 general senate · VA-S — lost_general
2014 general senate · VA-S — lost_general
2014 general senate · VA-S — lost_general
2014 general senate · VA-S — lost_general
2014 general senate · VA-S — running

Committees

2014 SENATORS CLASSIC COMMITTEE — joint_fundraising · type S
ALLIANCE FOR ADVANCING AMERICA — joint_fundraising · type S
ED GILLESPIE FOR SENATE — principal · type S
FOUNDERS SENATE CANDIDATE COMMITTEE — joint_fundraising · type N
GILLESPIE VICTORY COMMITTEE — joint_fundraising · type N
GILLESPIE VICTORY FUND — joint_fundraising · type N
SIX IN '14 FUND — joint_fundraising · type S

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 23.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%
senate race	-2.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Connected on the graph

Outbound (7)

date	type	to	amount	source
—	joint_fundraising_committee_of	GILLESPIE VICTORY FUND	—	candidate_committees
—	joint_fundraising_committee_of	ALLIANCE FOR ADVANCING AMERICA	—	candidate_committees
—	joint_fundraising_committee_of	2014 SENATORS CLASSIC COMMITTEE	—	candidate_committees
—	joint_fundraising_committee_of	FOUNDERS SENATE CANDIDATE COMMITTEE	—	candidate_committees
—	joint_fundraising_committee_of	SIX IN '14 FUND	—	candidate_committees
—	joint_fundraising_committee_of	GILLESPIE VICTORY FUND	—	candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	ED GILLESPIE FOR SENATE	—	candidate_committees

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