DUNBAR, ETHAN N SR.
D Β· senate
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- FEC candidate id
S6AR00173- Internal id
aa59c678-ff91-4edc-8b1e-297800ace731- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents (statewide)
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), Arkansas. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 3,049,391 |
| People | Median age | 39 |
| Income | Median household income | $60,773 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $34,225 |
| Income | In poverty | 16.0% |
| Income | Unemployed | 4.9% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.479 |
| Race | White alone | 69.2% |
| Race | Black alone | 14.7% |
| Race | Asian alone | 1.6% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 9.0% |
| Race | Two or more races | 10.3% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 5.4% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 91.7% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 6.1% |
| Education | High school or higher | 59.8% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 25.7% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 9.5% |
| Household | Family households | 64.6% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.46 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 29.8% |
| Housing | Median home value | $188,000 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $947 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 70.0% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 3.2% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 2.7% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 13.5% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 7.4% |
| Health | With a disability | 18.0% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 86.7% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 10.5% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 78.9% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.3% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 8.8% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $17,462 | $22,253 | $1,111 | $0 | $16,961 |
Elections
- 2026 general senate Β· AR-S β running
- 2026 general senate Β· AR-S β running
- 2026 general senate Β· AR-S β running
- 2026 general senate Β· AR-S β running
- 2026 general senate Β· AR-S β running
- 2026 general senate Β· AR-S β running
- 2026 general senate Β· AR-S β running
- 2026 general senate Β· AR-S β running
Committees
- FRIENDS OF NOEL DBA ETHANFORARKANSAS β principal Β· type S
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 23.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
| senate race | -2.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Top individual donors (2026 cycle)
Via this candidate's principal committee FRIENDS OF NOEL DBA ETHANFORARKANSAS.
Aggregated from FEC Schedule A by donor (name + city + state). Employer + occupation reflect the donor's most recent gift. Source: FEC indiv bulk.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | FRIENDS OF NOEL DBA ETHANFORARKANSAS | β | candidate_committees |