WARD III, JUSTIN HARVEY RANDOLPH
D Β· senate
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- FEC candidate id
S6MD03680- Internal id
3b059b43-e64c-4440-9fd7-9d5df614c7b8
Who this candidate represents (statewide)
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), Maryland. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 6,206,011 |
| People | Median age | 39 |
| Income | Median household income | $103,678 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $52,979 |
| Income | In poverty | 9.4% |
| Income | Unemployed | 4.8% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.456 |
| Race | White alone | 48.2% |
| Race | Black alone | 29.4% |
| Race | Asian alone | 6.6% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 12.5% |
| Race | Two or more races | 8.5% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 16.6% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 78.9% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 9.6% |
| Education | High school or higher | 66.9% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 43.5% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 20.8% |
| Household | Family households | 65.0% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.57 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 36.2% |
| Housing | Median home value | $419,900 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,705 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 51.2% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 5.0% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 2.5% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 7.7% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 6.8% |
| Health | With a disability | 11.6% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 92.4% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 5.2% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 64.7% |
| Commute | Public transit | 4.2% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 19.3% |
Elections
- 2026 general senate Β· MD-S β running
- 2026 general senate Β· MD-S β running
- 2026 general senate Β· MD-S β running
- 2026 general senate Β· MD-S β running
- 2026 general senate Β· MD-S β running
- 2026 general senate Β· MD-S β running
Committees
- TIP OF THE SPEAR β principal Β· type S
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 23.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
| senate race | -2.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | TIP OF THE SPEAR | β | candidate_committees |