TAFOYA, MICHELE
R Β· senate
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- FEC candidate id
S6MN00556- Internal id
d4917779-c919-4d38-b8ce-146492aa2ab8- Status
- open seat
Who this candidate represents (statewide)
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), Minnesota. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 5,739,445 |
| People | Median age | 39 |
| Income | Median household income | $89,062 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $48,237 |
| Income | In poverty | 9.3% |
| Income | Unemployed | 4.1% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.453 |
| Race | White alone | 77.1% |
| Race | Black alone | 7.0% |
| Race | Asian alone | 5.1% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 6.4% |
| Race | Two or more races | 7.0% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 8.7% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 87.6% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 4.2% |
| Education | High school or higher | 62.7% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 39.4% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 13.8% |
| Household | Family households | 62.3% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.43 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 33.4% |
| Housing | Median home value | $329,300 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,280 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 66.0% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 4.1% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 2.3% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 9.3% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 5.9% |
| Health | With a disability | 11.6% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 91.6% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 5.5% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 68.9% |
| Commute | Public transit | 1.8% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 17.6% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2,041,940 | $186,972 | $1,854,967 | $0 | $1,758,376 |
Elections
- 2026 general senate Β· MN-S β running
- 2026 general senate Β· MN-S β running
- 2026 general senate Β· MN-S β running
- 2026 general senate Β· MN-S β running
- 2026 general senate Β· MN-S β running
- 2026 general senate Β· MN-S β running
- 2026 general senate Β· MN-S β running
- 2026 general senate Β· MN-S β running
Committees
- TAFOYA FOR SENATE β principal Β· type S
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 18.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
| open seat | -5.0% |
| senate race | -2.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
| Date | From committee | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-30 | SCHWAN'S COMPANY POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | 24K | $5,000 |
| 2026-03-30 | SCHWAN'S COMPANY POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | 24K | $5,000 |
| 2026-03-25 | DIRIGO PAC | 24K | $5,000 |
| 2026-03-25 | DIRIGO PAC | 24K | $5,000 |
| 2026-03-25 | TOMORROW IS MEANINGFUL PAC | 24K | $5,000 |
| 2026-03-25 | TOMORROW IS MEANINGFUL PAC | 24K | $5,000 |
| 2026-03-24 | BUILDING UP DEMOCRACY'S DREAM | 24K | $5,000 |
| 2026-03-24 | AMERICAN EXCELLENCE PAC | 24K | $5,000 |
| 2026-03-24 | AMERICAN EXCELLENCE PAC | 24K | $5,000 |
| 2026-03-18 | STEER PAC | 24K | $5,000 |
| 2026-02-04 | BEST AT BRINGING ENTREPRENEURIAL RESULTS NEVER β¦ | 24K | $5,000 |
| 2026-02-04 | WILD AND WONDERFUL PAC | 24K | $5,000 |
| 2026-02-04 | BEST AT BRINGING ENTREPRENEURIAL RESULTS NEVER β¦ | 24K | $5,000 |
| 2026-01-30 | NRSC | 24K | $62,000 |
| 2026-01-30 | BOOTS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | 24K | $5,000 |
| 2026-01-30 | BOOTS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | 24K | $5,000 |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (16)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-30 | SCHWAN'S COMPANY POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | contributed_to | $5,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-30 | SCHWAN'S COMPANY POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | contributed_to | $5,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-25 | DIRIGO PAC | contributed_to | $5,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-25 | TOMORROW IS MEANINGFUL PAC | contributed_to | $5,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-25 | TOMORROW IS MEANINGFUL PAC | contributed_to | $5,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-25 | DIRIGO PAC | contributed_to | $5,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-24 | BUILDING UP DEMOCRACY'S DREAM | contributed_to | $5,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-24 | AMERICAN EXCELLENCE PAC | contributed_to | $5,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-24 | AMERICAN EXCELLENCE PAC | contributed_to | $5,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-18 | STEER PAC | contributed_to | $5,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-04 | BEST AT BRINGING ENTREPRENEURIAL RESULTS NEVER IMAGINED OR ENVISIONED PAC | contributed_to | $5,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-04 | WILD AND WONDERFUL PAC | contributed_to | $5,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-02-04 | BEST AT BRINGING ENTREPRENEURIAL RESULTS NEVER IMAGINED OR ENVISIONED PAC | contributed_to | $5,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-01-30 | NRSC | contributed_to | $62,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-01-30 | BOOTS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | contributed_to | $5,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-01-30 | BOOTS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | contributed_to | $5,000 | pas2 |
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | TAFOYA FOR SENATE | β | candidate_committees |