NEILL, REILLY
D Β· senate
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- FEC candidate id
S6MT00238- Internal id
a9e05ed2-abf1-49ec-9275-3f90984d2f72- Status
- open seat
Who this candidate represents (statewide)
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), Montana. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 1,116,875 |
| People | Median age | 40 |
| Income | Median household income | $72,509 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $41,711 |
| Income | In poverty | 11.5% |
| Income | Unemployed | 3.6% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.465 |
| Race | White alone | 85.0% |
| Race | Black alone | 0.5% |
| Race | Asian alone | 0.8% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 4.6% |
| Race | Two or more races | 6.8% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 2.3% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 95.8% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 1.4% |
| Education | High school or higher | 62.7% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 35.2% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 12.0% |
| Household | Family households | 60.3% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.37 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 30.2% |
| Housing | Median home value | $375,800 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,081 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 68.8% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 4.5% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 1.8% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 13.2% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 9.0% |
| Health | With a disability | 14.5% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 89.4% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 7.7% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 71.1% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.6% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 12.5% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $272,736 | $168,978 | $103,938 | $88,000 | $140,913 |
| 2024 | $4,352 | $4,173 | $180 | $0 | $137 |
Elections
- 2026 general senate Β· MT-S β running
- 2026 general senate Β· MT-S β running
- 2026 general senate Β· MT-S β running
- 2026 general senate Β· MT-S β running
- 2026 general senate Β· MT-S β running
- 2026 general senate Β· MT-S β running
- 2026 general senate Β· MT-S β running
- 2026 general senate Β· MT-S β running
Committees
- REILLY FOR MONTANA β principal Β· type S
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 18.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
| open seat | -5.0% |
| senate race | -2.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Independent expenditures
Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).
| Cycle | Support | Oppose | IEs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0 | $282,619 | 5 |
Recent (latest 25)
| Date | Spender | For / against | Amount | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | MORE JOBS, LESS GOVERNMENT | oppose | $45,801 | DIRECT MAIL: PRINTING AND POSTAGE |
| 2026-05-12 | MORE JOBS, LESS GOVERNMENT | oppose | $12,461 | TEXT MESSAGES |
| 2026-05-08 | MORE JOBS, LESS GOVERNMENT | oppose | $12,500 | PRODUCTION COST: DIGITAL ADS |
| 2026-05-08 | MORE JOBS, LESS GOVERNMENT | oppose | $175,000 | DIGITAL ADVERTISING |
| 2026-05-06 | MORE JOBS, LESS GOVERNMENT | oppose | $36,857 | DIRECT MAIL: PRINTING AND POSTAGE |
Top individual donors (2026 cycle)
Via this candidate's principal committee REILLY FOR MONTANA.
Aggregated from FEC Schedule A by donor (name + city + state). Employer + occupation reflect the donor's most recent gift. Source: FEC indiv bulk.
| Donor | Employer / occupation | City, ST | Gifts | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WOOD, VIVIAN | NOT EMPLOYED Β· NOT EMPLOYED | LOMA, MT | 1 | $234 |
| JENNINGS, GERRY | NOT EMPLOYED Β· NOT EMPLOYED | GREAT FALLS, MT | 1 | $50 |
| AUSTAD, SUSAN | NOT EMPLOYED Β· NOT EMPLOYED | HELENA, MT | 1 | $25 |
| KEOGH, LAURENCE | NOT EMPLOYED Β· NOT EMPLOYED | HAMILTON, MT | 1 | $25 |
| REED, DERIK | NOT EMPLOYED Β· NOT EMPLOYED | HELENA, MT | 1 | $25 |
| HODGES, MARI K | NOT EMPLOYED Β· NOT EMPLOYED | HELENA, MT | 1 | $10 |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (5)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | MORE JOBS, LESS GOVERNMENT | opposes_independently | $45,801 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-05-12 | MORE JOBS, LESS GOVERNMENT | opposes_independently | $12,461 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-05-08 | MORE JOBS, LESS GOVERNMENT | opposes_independently | $12,500 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-05-08 | MORE JOBS, LESS GOVERNMENT | opposes_independently | $175,000 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-05-06 | MORE JOBS, LESS GOVERNMENT | opposes_independently | $36,857 | fec_ies |
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | REILLY FOR MONTANA | β | candidate_committees |