MARVIN, MIKE

OTHER · senate

FEC candidate id: S6NE00152
Internal id: 4d2c9561-8186-42ce-99ef-91e37883f66b
Status: challenger

Who this candidate represents (statewide)

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), Nebraska. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	1,978,707
People	Median age	37
Income	Median household income	$76,475
Income	Per-capita income	$41,751
Income	In poverty	10.6%
Income	Unemployed	3.0%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.456
Race	White alone	77.9%
Race	Black alone	4.8%
Race	Asian alone	2.6%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	12.7%
Race	Two or more races	9.1%
Origin	Foreign-born	8.0%
Language	Speaks English only at home	87.2%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	8.4%
Education	High school or higher	59.6%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	34.6%
Education	Advanced degree	12.3%
Household	Family households	62.7%
Household	Avg household size	2.42
Household	Never married (15+)	31.7%
Housing	Median home value	$238,600
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,072
Housing	Single-family detached	71.3%
Housing	Built before 1940	4.3%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	2.1%
Housing	Vacant units	7.6%
Service	Veterans (18+)	6.9%
Health	With a disability	12.3%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	90.6%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	6.6%
Commute	Drove alone	76.1%
Commute	Public transit	0.5%
Commute	Worked from home	11.1%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2026	$9,390	$5,403	$3,987	$4,095	$9,390

Elections

2026 general senate · NE-S — running
2026 general senate · NE-S — running
2026 general senate · NE-S — running
2026 general senate · NE-S — running
2026 general senate · NE-S — running
2026 general senate · NE-S — running
2026 general senate · NE-S — running
2026 general senate · NE-S — running

Committees

MARVIN FOR CONGRESS — principal · type S

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 13.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
senate race	-2.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2026	$65,737	$0	4

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
2026-05-08	COMMON DEFENSE ACTION FUND	support	$19,047	Printing and Postage - Estimate
2026-05-08	COMMON DEFENSE ACTION FUND	support	$15,909	Printing and Postage - Estimate
2026-05-04	COMMON DEFENSE ACTION FUND	support	$12,361	Digital Advertising - Estimate
2026-04-28	COMMON DEFENSE ACTION FUND	support	$18,420	Printing and Postage - Estimate

Connected on the graph

Inbound (4)

date	from	type	amount	source
2026-05-08	COMMON DEFENSE ACTION FUND	supports_independently	$19,047	fec_ies
2026-05-08	COMMON DEFENSE ACTION FUND	supports_independently	$15,909	fec_ies
2026-05-04	COMMON DEFENSE ACTION FUND	supports_independently	$12,361	fec_ies
2026-04-28	COMMON DEFENSE ACTION FUND	supports_independently	$18,420	fec_ies

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	MARVIN FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees

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