HERN, KEVIN
R · senate
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- FEC candidate id
S6OK04247- Internal id
d75402ba-09aa-4119-bec7-55299cfaec12- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents (statewide)
Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), Oklahoma. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 4,028,634 |
| People | Median age | 37 |
| Income | Median household income | $65,039 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $35,624 |
| Income | In poverty | 15.3% |
| Income | Unemployed | 4.9% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.467 |
| Race | White alone | 65.2% |
| Race | Black alone | 7.0% |
| Race | Asian alone | 2.4% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 12.7% |
| Race | Two or more races | 14.3% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 6.4% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 88.5% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 8.1% |
| Education | High school or higher | 59.0% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 28.4% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 9.9% |
| Household | Family households | 64.3% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.50 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 30.7% |
| Housing | Median home value | $199,800 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,014 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 72.7% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 4.8% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 2.9% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 12.0% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 7.9% |
| Health | With a disability | 17.2% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 88.9% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 8.4% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 77.5% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.3% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 9.4% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $8,284,048 | $67,761 | $8,216,287 | $5,050,000 | $592,564 |
Elections
- 2026 general senate · OK-S — running
- 2026 general senate · OK-S — running
- 2026 general senate · OK-S — running
- 2026 general senate · OK-S — running
- 2026 general senate · OK-S — running
- 2026 general senate · OK-S — running
- 2026 general senate · OK-S — running
- 2026 general senate · OK-S — running
- 2026 general senate · OK-S — running
Committees
- HERN FOR SENATE — principal · type S
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 23.1%
| Feature | Δ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
| senate race | -2.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Independent expenditures
Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).
| Cycle | Support | Oppose | IEs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $837,813 | $0 | 18 |
Recent (latest 25)
| Date | Spender | For / against | Amount | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | DEFENDING OUR VALUES PAC | support | $8,391 | Production - TV |
| 2026-05-11 | DEFENDING OUR VALUES PAC | support | $799,950 | TV - Buy |
| 2026-05-01 | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | support | $8,147 | IE-HERN-DIRECT MAIL PRODUCTION |
| 2026-04-29 | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | support | $54 | IE- HERN - DONATION PROCESSING |
| 2026-04-22 | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | support | $112 | IE- HERN - DONATION PROCESSING |
| 2026-04-22 | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | support | $6,794 | IE-HERN-DIRECT MAIL PRODUCTION |
| 2026-04-17 | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | support | $2,667 | IE-HERN-DIGITAL MARKETING |
| 2026-04-14 | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | support | $250 | IE-HERN-DIGITAL MARKETING |
| 2026-04-14 | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | support | $89 | IE- HERN - DONATION PROCESSING |
| 2026-04-07 | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | support | $84 | IE-HERN-PRINTING |
| 2026-04-07 | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | support | $223 | IE-HERN-POSTAGE |
| 2026-04-07 | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | support | $103 | IE-HERN-PRINTING |
| 2026-04-07 | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | support | $36 | IE- HERN - DONATION PROCESSING |
| 2026-04-07 | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | support | $77 | IE-HERN-PRINTING |
| 2026-04-03 | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | support | $8,722 | IE-HERN-DIRECT MAIL PRODUCTION |
| 2026-04-01 | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | support | $34 | IE- HERN - DONATION PROCESSING |
| 2026-04-01 | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | support | $2,030 | IE-HERN-PRINTING |
| 2026-03-25 | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | support | $50 | IE- HERN - DONATION PROCESSING |
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
| Date | From committee | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | NRSC | 24K | $62,000 |
| 2026-03-31 | TOGETHER UNITED FOR LIBERTY, INTEGRITY AND PROS… | 24K | $1,000 |
| 2026-03-31 | WORKING FOR OHIO | 24K | $5,000 |
| 2026-03-30 | UNITED COMMUNITY BANKERS PAC (BANCFIRST CORPORA… | 24K | $2,500 |
| 2026-03-30 | MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL, INC. POLITICAL ACTION C… | 24K | $2,500 |
| 2026-03-30 | AAR CORP. PAC | 24K | $5,000 |
| 2026-03-30 | JOBS, ENERGY AND OUR FOUNDING FATHERS PAC | 24K | $2,000 |
| 2026-03-27 | JOBS OPPORTUNITY NOW POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | 24K | $5,000 |
| 2026-03-27 | FRESENIUS MEDICAL CARE HOLDINGS, INC. POLITICAL… | 24K | $5,000 |
| 2026-03-26 | JOBS OPPORTUNITY NOW POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | 24K | $5,000 |
| 2026-03-26 | PRAYERIE PAC | 24K | $3,500 |
| 2026-03-26 | BADLANDS PAC | 24K | $1,500 |
| 2026-03-25 | COMMON VALUES PAC | 24K | $5,000 |
| 2026-03-25 | AMERICAN FIDELITY CORPORATION POLITICAL ACTION … | 24K | $3,500 |
| 2026-03-25 | COMMON VALUES PAC | 24K | $5,000 |
| 2026-03-24 | BUILDING UP DEMOCRACY'S DREAM | 24K | $5,000 |
| 2026-03-23 | MILLER & CHEVALIER CHARTERED POLITICAL ACTION C… | 24K | $1,000 |
| 2026-03-19 | MVL PAC | 24K | $5,000 |
| 2026-03-13 | SENATE EAGLE PAC | 24K | $5,000 |
| 2026-03-13 | SENATE EAGLE PAC | 24K | $5,000 |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (38)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | DEFENDING OUR VALUES | supports_independently | $8,391 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-05-11 | DEFENDING OUR VALUES | supports_independently | $799,950 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-05-01 | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | supports_independently | $8,147 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-04-29 | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | supports_independently | $54 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-04-22 | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | supports_independently | $112 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-04-22 | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | supports_independently | $6,794 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-04-17 | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | supports_independently | $2,667 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-04-14 | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | supports_independently | $250 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-04-14 | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | supports_independently | $89 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-04-07 | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | supports_independently | $84 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-04-07 | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | supports_independently | $36 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-04-07 | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | supports_independently | $103 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-04-07 | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | supports_independently | $223 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-04-07 | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | supports_independently | $77 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-04-03 | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | supports_independently | $8,722 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-04-01 | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | supports_independently | $2,030 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-04-01 | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | supports_independently | $34 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-03-31 | TOGETHER UNITED FOR LIBERTY, INTEGRITY AND PROSPERITY PAC (TULIP PAC) | contributed_to | $1,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-31 | WORKING FOR OHIO | contributed_to | $5,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-31 | NRSC | contributed_to | $62,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-30 | AAR CORP. PAC | contributed_to | $5,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-30 | JOBS, ENERGY AND OUR FOUNDING FATHERS PAC | contributed_to | $2,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-30 | UNITED COMMUNITY BANKERS PAC (BANCFIRST CORPORATION) | contributed_to | $2,500 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-30 | MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL, INC. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | contributed_to | $2,500 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-27 | JOBS OPPORTUNITY NOW POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | contributed_to | $5,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-27 | FRESENIUS MEDICAL CARE HOLDINGS, INC. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | contributed_to | $5,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-26 | JOBS OPPORTUNITY NOW POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | contributed_to | $5,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-26 | BADLANDS PAC | contributed_to | $1,500 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-26 | PRAYERIE PAC | contributed_to | $3,500 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-25 | SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND | supports_independently | $50 | fec_ies | |
| 2026-03-25 | AMERICAN FIDELITY CORPORATION POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE | contributed_to | $3,500 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-25 | COMMON VALUES PAC | contributed_to | $5,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-25 | COMMON VALUES PAC | contributed_to | $5,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-24 | BUILDING UP DEMOCRACY'S DREAM | contributed_to | $5,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-23 | MILLER & CHEVALIER CHARTERED POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE ('MILLER & CHEVALIER PAC') | contributed_to | $1,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-19 | MVL PAC | contributed_to | $5,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-13 | SENATE EAGLE PAC | contributed_to | $5,000 | pas2 | |
| 2026-03-13 | SENATE EAGLE PAC | contributed_to | $5,000 | pas2 |
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | principal_candidate_of | HERN FOR SENATE | — | candidate_committees |