MCNEAL, JUSTIN S
R Β· senate
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- FEC candidate id
S6SD01133- Internal id
c68bcfa1-e96b-439a-b2a1-2716a842ce7f- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents (statewide)
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), South Dakota. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 907,428 |
| People | Median age | 38 |
| Income | Median household income | $75,081 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $40,550 |
| Income | In poverty | 11.9% |
| Income | Unemployed | 2.9% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.449 |
| Race | White alone | 80.7% |
| Race | Black alone | 2.3% |
| Race | Asian alone | 1.4% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 4.8% |
| Race | Two or more races | 6.5% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 4.0% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 92.9% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 2.6% |
| Education | High school or higher | 60.9% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 31.9% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 10.0% |
| Household | Family households | 61.3% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.39 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 32.0% |
| Housing | Median home value | $257,400 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $946 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 66.9% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 3.9% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 2.3% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 10.5% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 7.9% |
| Health | With a disability | 12.5% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 89.6% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 7.4% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 77.0% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.5% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 9.7% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1,555 | $11 | $1,544 | $9,602 | $1,429 |
Elections
- 2026 general senate Β· SD-S β running
- 2026 general senate Β· SD-S β running
- 2026 general senate Β· SD-S β running
- 2026 general senate Β· SD-S β running
- 2026 general senate Β· SD-S β running
- 2026 general senate Β· SD-S β running
- 2026 general senate Β· SD-S β running
- 2026 general senate Β· SD-S β running
Committees
- FRIENDS OF JUSTIN MCNEAL FOR US SENATE β principal Β· type S
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 23.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
| senate race | -2.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | FRIENDS OF JUSTIN MCNEAL FOR US SENATE | β | candidate_committees |