GAYNOR, MICHAEL GREGORY WILLIAM MR. SR
R Β· senate
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- FEC candidate id
S8KS00268- Internal id
7aff456b-dcc2-4cdc-a89a-9f22fc9d83c7- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents (statewide)
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), Kansas. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 2,947,197 |
| People | Median age | 37 |
| Income | Median household income | $74,275 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $40,978 |
| Income | In poverty | 11.3% |
| Income | Unemployed | 3.9% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.457 |
| Race | White alone | 76.0% |
| Race | Black alone | 5.3% |
| Race | Asian alone | 3.0% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 13.6% |
| Race | Two or more races | 10.6% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 7.4% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 87.9% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 8.1% |
| Education | High school or higher | 61.0% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 35.6% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 13.4% |
| Household | Family households | 63.4% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.44 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 31.0% |
| Housing | Median home value | $217,200 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,060 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 71.8% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 5.1% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 2.1% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 9.2% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 6.8% |
| Health | With a disability | 13.5% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 90.7% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 6.8% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 75.4% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.4% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 11.8% |
Elections
- 2028 general senate Β· KS-S β running
- 2028 general senate Β· KS-S β running
- 2028 general senate Β· KS-S β running
- 2028 general senate Β· KS-S β running
- 2028 general senate Β· KS-S β running
- 2028 general senate Β· KS-S β running
- 2028 general senate Β· KS-S β running
Committees
No committees on file.
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 23.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
| senate race | -2.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.