BARTOS, JEFFREY A
R Β· senate
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- FEC candidate id
S8PA00262- Internal id
ce6ffd77-802a-4483-9c57-32406355d7d4- Status
- open seat
Who this candidate represents (statewide)
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), Pennsylvania. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 13,018,639 |
| People | Median age | 41 |
| Income | Median household income | $77,971 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $44,355 |
| Income | In poverty | 11.7% |
| Income | Unemployed | 5.3% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.474 |
| Race | White alone | 74.5% |
| Race | Black alone | 10.7% |
| Race | Asian alone | 3.8% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 8.7% |
| Race | Two or more races | 7.1% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 7.7% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 87.6% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 5.6% |
| Education | High school or higher | 68.1% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 35.2% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 14.3% |
| Household | Family households | 62.4% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.39 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 34.6% |
| Housing | Median home value | $254,500 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,209 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 56.6% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 7.0% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 1.6% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 9.2% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 6.1% |
| Health | With a disability | 14.3% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 89.7% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 7.9% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 68.2% |
| Commute | Public transit | 3.6% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 15.6% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $3,515,417 | $3,515,417 | $0 | $0 | $2,189,479 |
| 2018 | $1,312,822 | $1,312,822 | $0 | $0 | $722,698 |
Elections
- 2018 general senate Β· PA-S β lost_general
- 2018 general senate Β· PA-S β lost_general
- 2018 general senate Β· PA-S β lost_general
- 2018 general senate Β· PA-S β lost_general
- 2018 general senate Β· PA-S β lost_general
- 2022 general senate Β· PA-S β lost_general
- 2022 general senate Β· PA-S β lost_general
- 2022 general senate Β· PA-S β lost_general
- 2022 general senate Β· PA-S β lost_general
- 2022 general senate Β· PA-S β lost_general
Committees
- BARTOS FOR SENATE INC β principal Β· type S
- BARTOS FOR US SENATE INC β principal Β· type S
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 18.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
| open seat | -5.0% |
| senate race | -2.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
| Date | From committee | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| β | RIVER HORSE PAC | 24E | $3,833 |
| 2022-06-28 | PEOPLE4AMERICA FEDERAL COMMITTEE | 24K | $-2,100 |
| 2022-06-14 | WINRED | 24K | $-5,800 |
| 2022-06-14 | WINRED | 24K | $-100 |
| 2022-06-14 | WINRED | 24K | $-5,800 |
| 2022-06-14 | WINRED | 24K | $-4,200 |
| 2022-06-14 | WINRED | 24K | $-2,900 |
| 2022-06-14 | WINRED | 24K | $-5,800 |
| 2022-06-14 | WINRED | 24K | $-2,100 |
| 2022-06-14 | WINRED | 24K | $-2,400 |
| 2022-06-14 | WINRED | 24K | $-2,900 |
| 2022-06-14 | WINRED | 24K | $-2,100 |
| 2022-06-14 | WINRED | 24K | $-5,800 |
| 2022-06-14 | WINRED | 24K | $-5,800 |
| 2022-06-14 | WINRED | 24K | $-361 |
| 2022-06-14 | WINRED | 24K | $-2,900 |
| 2022-06-14 | WINRED | 24K | $-2,900 |
| 2022-06-14 | WINRED | 24K | $-5,800 |
| 2022-06-14 | WINRED | 24K | $-100 |
| 2022-06-14 | WINRED | 24K | $-2,900 |
| 2022-06-14 | WINRED | 24K | $-250 |
| 2022-06-14 | WINRED | 24K | $-1,000 |
| 2022-06-14 | WINRED | 24K | $-2,900 |
| 2022-06-14 | WINRED | 24K | $-2,900 |
| 2022-06-14 | WINRED | 24K | $-2,900 |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (100)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | RIVER HORSE PAC | contributed_to | $3,833 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-28 | PEOPLE4AMERICA FEDERAL COMMITTEE | contributed_to | $-2,100 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-14 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,350 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-14 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,900 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-14 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5,800 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-14 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,900 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-14 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,900 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-14 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-100 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-14 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,900 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-14 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5,800 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-14 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5,800 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-14 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-4,200 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-14 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,900 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-14 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,400 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-14 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5,800 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-14 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,100 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-14 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-250 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-14 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5,800 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-14 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-1,000 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-14 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-100 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-14 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5,800 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-14 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,900 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-14 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,900 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-14 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,900 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-14 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-361 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-14 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,100 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5,800 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,900 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5,800 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,100 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,900 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,900 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,100 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,900 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5,800 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5,800 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5,800 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,900 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5,800 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5,800 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5,800 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5,800 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,900 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,900 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,900 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,900 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,900 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,900 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,100 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,900 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5,800 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,900 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5,800 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,900 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,100 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5,800 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5,800 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5,800 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5,800 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-1,100 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5,800 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,600 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,900 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,900 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5,800 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-1,000 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,900 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5,800 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5,800 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,900 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5,800 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5,200 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,900 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,900 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,900 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,900 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5,800 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5,800 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-700 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5,800 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5,800 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,900 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5,800 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,900 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,900 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,900 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-350 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,900 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,900 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,900 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5,800 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,100 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5,800 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,900 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,900 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5,800 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,900 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-5,800 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,100 | pas2 | |
| 2022-06-06 | WINRED | contributed_to | $-2,900 | pas2 |
Outbound (2)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | BARTOS FOR US SENATE INC | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | principal_candidate_of | BARTOS FOR SENATE INC | β | candidate_committees |