WARNER, JOHN WILLIAM
R Β· senate
Sign in to add to a watchlist β
- FEC candidate id
S8VA00107- Internal id
22533a48-5dca-44d6-89c2-cceff67b5def- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents (statewide)
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), Virginia. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 8,705,170 |
| People | Median age | 39 |
| Income | Median household income | $93,170 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $50,666 |
| Income | In poverty | 9.9% |
| Income | Unemployed | 4.1% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.471 |
| Race | White alone | 60.2% |
| Race | Black alone | 18.6% |
| Race | Asian alone | 6.9% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 11.0% |
| Race | Two or more races | 9.5% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 13.1% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 82.6% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 7.9% |
| Education | High school or higher | 66.0% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 42.2% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 18.5% |
| Household | Family households | 64.8% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.52 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 33.2% |
| Housing | Median home value | $383,700 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,579 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 61.3% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 4.2% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 2.1% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 8.7% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 9.4% |
| Health | With a disability | 12.5% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 91.0% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 6.7% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 67.6% |
| Commute | Public transit | 2.3% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 18.3% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | $345 | $11,360 | $2,066 | $0 | $345 |
| 2012 | $136 | $91,175 | $13,082 | $0 | $0 |
| 2010 | $3,596 | $227,870 | $104,121 | $0 | $0 |
| 2008 | $108,708 | $491,332 | $328,394 | $0 | $2,800 |
| 2006 | $65,758 | $289,207 | $711,015 | $0 | $1,890 |
| 2004 | $1,418,530 | $1,822,598 | $934,466 | $0 | $30,100 |
| 2002 | $2,618,634 | $1,709,202 | $1,338,535 | $0 | $1,588,527 |
| 2000 | $466,928 | $204,929 | $439,738 | $0 | $292,291 |
| 1998 | $761,035 | $613,889 | $167,245 | $100,000 | $460,579 |
| 1996 | $5,433,390 | $5,596,061 | $19,471 | $392,133 | $2,955,543 |
| 1994 | $101,055 | $79,076 | $182,141 | $0 | $47,082 |
| 1992 | $694,881 | $1,156,857 | $160,162 | $0 | $4,695 |
| 1990 | $1,753,957 | $1,155,530 | $622,138 | $400,000 | $823,167 |
| 1988 | $58,226 | $56,136 | $23,762 | $400,000 | $6,386 |
| 1986 | $164,751 | $188,470 | $21,672 | $400,000 | $0 |
| 1984 | $2,830,779 | $2,788,768 | $45,392 | $507,406 | $1,354,419 |
| 1982 | $474,134 | $475,609 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 1980 | $382,240 | $387,191 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Elections
- 1984 general senate Β· VA-S β won
- 1984 general senate Β· VA-S β won
- 1984 general senate Β· VA-S β won
- 1990 general senate Β· VA-S β won
- 1990 general senate Β· VA-S β won
- 1990 general senate Β· VA-S β won
- 1996 general senate Β· VA-S β won
- 1996 general senate Β· VA-S β won
- 1996 general senate Β· VA-S β won
- 1996 general senate Β· VA-S β won
- 2002 general senate Β· VA-S β won
- 2002 general senate Β· VA-S β won
- 2002 general senate Β· VA-S β won
- 2008 general senate Β· VA-S β won
- 2008 general senate Β· VA-S β won
- 2008 general senate Β· VA-S β won
- 2008 general senate Β· VA-S β won
- 2008 general senate Β· VA-S β won
- 2008 general senate Β· VA-S β won
- 2008 general senate Β· VA-S β won
Committees
- 2007 SENATORS' CLASSIC COMMITTEE β joint_fundraising Β· type Q
- FRIENDS OF JOHN WARNER 1996 COMMITTEE β principal Β· type S
- REPUBLICAN SENATE VICTORY 1990 β joint_fundraising Β· type S
- REPUBLICAN SENATORIAL INNER CIRCLE 1990 β joint_fundraising Β· type Y
- SENATOR JOHN WARNER COMMITTEE β principal Β· type S
- SENATOR JOHN WARNER COMMITTEE, THE β principal Β· type S
- W/N 1999 β joint_fundraising Β· type S
- W/N 2000 COMMITTEE β joint_fundraising Β· type S
- W/N 2001 COMMITTEE β joint_fundraising Β· type S
- W/N 2002 C0MMITTEE β joint_fundraising Β· type S
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 23.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
| senate race | -2.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (10)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | W/N 2000 COMMITTEE | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | 2007 SENATORS' CLASSIC COMMITTEE | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | REPUBLICAN SENATE VICTORY 1990 | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | W/N 2002 C0MMITTEE | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | W/N 1999 | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | REPUBLICAN SENATORIAL INNER CIRCLE 1990 | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | joint_fundraising_committee_of | W/N 2001 COMMITTEE | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | principal_candidate_of | FRIENDS OF JOHN WARNER 1996 COMMITTEE | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | principal_candidate_of | SENATOR JOHN WARNER COMMITTEE | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | principal_candidate_of | SENATOR JOHN WARNER COMMITTEE | β | candidate_committees |