ARENHOLZ, ASHLEY HINSON
R · house
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- FEC candidate id
H0IA01174- Internal id
767fab1b-48a0-4821-bdda-e6b90107ab0e- Status
- incumbent
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), IA-02. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 795,370 |
| People | Median age | 40 |
| Income | Median household income | $73,764 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $40,483 |
| Income | In poverty | 10.4% |
| Income | Unemployed | 3.4% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.440 |
| Race | White alone | 87.2% |
| Race | Black alone | 4.0% |
| Race | Asian alone | 1.6% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 4.1% |
| Race | Two or more races | 5.2% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 4.1% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 93.9% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 2.5% |
| Education | High school or higher | 61.4% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 29.2% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 9.6% |
| Household | Family households | 61.9% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.32 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 30.9% |
| Housing | Median home value | $197,900 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $912 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 74.8% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 4.8% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 1.4% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 8.9% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 6.9% |
| Health | With a disability | 12.6% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 89.2% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 7.8% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 77.1% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.4% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 11.2% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $7,267,266 | $2,679,199 | $6,516,143 | $0 | $3,969,586 |
| 2024 | $5,600,532 | $3,740,906 | $1,928,075 | $0 | $3,253,295 |
| 2022 | $7,191,931 | $7,240,154 | $68,450 | $0 | $5,048,481 |
| 2020 | $5,178,803 | $5,062,131 | $116,672 | $72,500 | $4,637,838 |
Elections
- 2020 general house · IA-1 — lost_general
- 2020 general house · IA-2 — running
- 2022 general house · IA-2 — running
- 2024 general house · IA-2 — running
- 2026 general house · IA-2 — running
Committees
- ASHLEY FOR IOWA — principal · type S
- HINSON FOR IA-01 — principal · type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 99.0%
| Feature | Δ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| incumbent | +78.0% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Independent expenditures
Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).
| Cycle | Support | Oppose | IEs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $87,675 | $0 | 5 |
| 2022 | $1,037,597 | $0 | 46 |
Recent (latest 25)
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
Top individual donors (2026 cycle)
Via this candidate's principal committee ASHLEY FOR IOWA.
Aggregated from FEC Schedule A by donor (name + city + state). Employer + occupation reflect the donor's most recent gift. Source: FEC indiv bulk.
| Donor | Employer / occupation | City, ST | Gifts | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SABIN, ANDREW | SABIN METAL CORPORATION · C.E.O. | NEW YORK, NY | 2 | $10,500 |
| REHNERT, GEOFFREY | AUDAX GROUP · CO-FOUNDER CO-CEO | BOSTON, MA | 2 | $10,500 |
| WINRED | — | ARLINGTON, VA | 2 | $8,643 |
| EMERY, RODNEY | STEADFAST · CEO | IRVINE, CA | 1 | $5,000 |
| WEBER, TIMOTHY J. MR. | ANDERSON WEBER INC · AUTO DEALER | DUBUQUE, IA | 1 | $3,500 |
| YODER, M. DAVID | RETIRED · RETIRED | MENIFEE, CA | 1 | $3,500 |
| GEARON, JOHN | RETIRED · RETIRED | ATLANTA, GA | 1 | $3,500 |
| GLUECK, KENNETH | ORACLE CORPORATION · EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT | WEST PALM BEACH, FL | 1 | $3,500 |
| BARKER, DAVID | — | IOWA CITY, IA | 1 | $3,500 |
| LEFFELL, MICHAEL | PORTAGE PARTNERS · INVESTOR | SCARSDALE, NY | 1 | $3,500 |
| NICOLLS, C. ROBERT II | MONARCH & MANAGEMENT GROUP · OWNER | FRANKTOWN, CO | 1 | $3,500 |
| WATERMAN, BOB | LANE & WATERMAN LLP · LAWYER | BETTENDORF, IA | 1 | $3,500 |
| FREDERICK, JOHN C. | EYE SURGEON ASSOCIATES · PHYSICIAN | LE CLAIRE, IA | 1 | $3,500 |
| BRONFMAN, JEREMY | LINCOLN AVENUE COMMUNITIES · CEO | SANTA MONICA, CA | 1 | $3,000 |
| JONES, KIM | — | OKOBOJI, IA | 1 | $2,500 |
| TEPAS, GARY | — | NAPLES, FL | 1 | $2,000 |
| ORTIZ, RAY | — | ESPANOLA, NM | 1 | $1,505 |
| DOLL-SHEEDER, LAUREN | HOMEMAKER · HOMEMAKER | GUTHRIE CENTER, IA | 1 | $1,000 |
| ROWLES, CRAIG | DR. · AGRICULTURE | CLIVE, IA | 1 | $1,000 |
| MCCOY, MICHAEL ROBERT | NCMIC · C.E.O. | WEST DES MOINES, IA | 1 | $1,000 |
| CARLSON, GARY L. | RETIRED · RETIRED | BETTENDORF, IA | 1 | $1,000 |
| MICKELSON, JOHN | MIDWEST GROWTH PARTNERS · FUND MANAGER | CLIVE, IA | 1 | $1,000 |
| RYAN, NICK | CONCORDIA GROUP · CEO | WAUKEE, IA | 1 | $1,000 |
| BUSH, GREGORY | MCCARTHY-BUSH CORP · CEO | LECLAIRE, IA | 1 | $1,000 |
| MAGGIE'S LIST | — | TALLAHASSEE, FL | 1 | $1,000 |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (100)
Outbound (2)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | principal_candidate_of | ASHLEY FOR IOWA | — | candidate_committees | |
| — | principal_candidate_of | HINSON FOR IA-01 | — | candidate_committees |