HAULER, JOHN RAYMOND

R · house

FEC candidate id: H0MI13414
Internal id: 75a6eedf-0f47-43e0-bcb5-5acf30b0bce9
Status: challenger

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2010	$33,160	$16,855	$16,305	$22,219	$22,060

Elections

2010 general house · MI-13 — lost_general
2012 general house · MI-14 — lost_general

Committees

COMMITTEE TO ELECT JOHN HAULER — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Connected on the graph

1 typed relationship in the influence graph — 0 inbound, 1 outbound, grouped by type.

principal candidate of (1)

date	dir	entity	amount	role	source
—	→	COMMITTEE TO ELECT JOHN HAULER	—		candidate_committees

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