MARSHALL, DEREK
D Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H2CA08214- Internal id
68de107f-53ad-4390-b651-d2fdfa6ac352- Status
- challenger
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), CA-23. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 764,069 |
| People | Median age | 35 |
| Income | Median household income | $74,939 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $33,389 |
| Income | In poverty | 15.4% |
| Income | Unemployed | 8.7% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.460 |
| Race | White alone | 46.6% |
| Race | Black alone | 8.3% |
| Race | Asian alone | 4.4% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 44.6% |
| Race | Two or more races | 24.0% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 14.6% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 68.2% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 26.6% |
| Education | High school or higher | 50.2% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 21.2% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 8.5% |
| Household | Family households | 71.5% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.98 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 36.7% |
| Housing | Median home value | $404,600 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $1,574 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 76.6% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 2.9% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 6.6% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 17.4% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 6.9% |
| Health | With a disability | 15.3% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 92.5% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 5.5% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 73.2% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.5% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 11.1% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1,901 | $5,114 | $0 | $6,164 | $0 |
| 2024 | $759,289 | $770,326 | $3,213 | $2,720 | $728,478 |
| 2022 | $956,859 | $942,608 | $14,251 | $0 | $925,487 |
Elections
Committees
- DEREK MARSHALL FOR CONGRESS β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 25.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Independent expenditures
Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).
| Cycle | Support | Oppose | IEs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $2,000 | $0 | 1 |
Recent (latest 25)
| Date | Spender | For / against | Amount | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-04 | WORKING FAMILIES PARTY PAC | support | $2,000 | Texting (estimate) |
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
Connected on the graph
Inbound (59)
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | DEREK MARSHALL FOR CONGRESS | β | candidate_committees |