HAWKINS, SHAY

R · house

FEC candidate id: H2OH13231
Internal id: 67ae8266-dc21-46a8-b1a9-c466cc446605
Status: open seat

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), OH-13. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	783,308
People	Median age	41
Income	Median household income	$70,696
Income	Per-capita income	$41,662
Income	In poverty	12.7%
Income	Unemployed	4.8%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.470
Race	White alone	76.3%
Race	Black alone	12.3%
Race	Asian alone	3.4%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	3.0%
Race	Two or more races	7.0%
Origin	Foreign-born	5.0%
Language	Speaks English only at home	93.8%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	1.4%
Education	High school or higher	64.0%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	34.0%
Education	Advanced degree	12.6%
Household	Family households	60.5%
Household	Avg household size	2.30
Household	Never married (15+)	33.3%
Housing	Median home value	$206,300
Housing	Median gross rent	$980
Housing	Single-family detached	72.0%
Housing	Built before 1940	6.6%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	1.0%
Housing	Vacant units	6.8%
Service	Veterans (18+)	6.3%
Health	With a disability	13.9%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	90.5%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	6.5%
Commute	Drove alone	75.2%
Commute	Public transit	0.8%
Commute	Worked from home	14.2%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2022	$164,177	$164,177	$0	$0	$99,588

Elections

2022 general house · OH-13 — lost_general

Committees

SHAY HAWKINS FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 20.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%
open seat	-5.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2022	$74,554	$0	3

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
2022-04-12	OPPORTUNITY MATTERS FUND, INC.	support	$7,000	PROUCTION COST: VIDEO
2022-04-12	OPPORTUNITY MATTERS FUND, INC.	support	$59,624	DIGITAL ADVERTISING
2022-04-12	OPPORTUNITY MATTERS FUND, INC.	support	$7,930	DIGITAL VOTER CONTACT

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2022-09-09	JACKSON HOLDINGS LLC AND JACKSON NATIONAL LIFE …	24K	$-1,000
2022-07-11	WINRED	24K	$-5
2022-07-11	WINRED	24K	$-5
2022-06-02	WINRED	24K	$0
2022-05-29	WINRED	24K	$-2
2022-05-21	WINRED	24K	$-2
2022-05-04	WINRED	24K	$0
2022-05-02	JACKSON HOLDINGS LLC AND JACKSON NATIONAL LIFE …	24K	$1,000
2022-04-28	THE REAL ESTATE ROUNDTABLE POLITICAL ACTION COM…	24K	$1,000
2022-04-27	AIR LINE PILOTS ASSOCIATION PAC	24K	$1,000
2022-04-26	AMERICAN PROPERTY CASUALTY INSURANCE ASSOCIATIO…	24K	$2,500
2022-04-13	NEW YORK LIFE INSURANCE COMPANY POLITICAL ACTIO…	24K	$5,000
2022-04-12	OPPORTUNITY MATTERS FUND, INC.	24E	$7,929
2022-04-12	OPPORTUNITY MATTERS FUND, INC.	24E	$59,623
2022-04-12	OPPORTUNITY MATTERS FUND, INC.	24E	$7,000
2022-04-05	CGCN PAC	24K	$1,000
2022-03-30	WHOLESALE & SPECIALTY INSURANCE ASSOCIATION (WS…	24K	$2,500
2022-03-27	TOMORROW IS MEANINGFUL PAC	24K	$5,000
2022-03-23	EATON CORPORATION PUBLIC POLICY ASSOCIATION	24K	$1,000
2022-02-28	THE COUNCIL OF INSURANCE AGENTS & BROKERS POLIT…	24K	$2,500
2022-01-26	THE REAL ESTATE ROUNDTABLE POLITICAL ACTION COM…	24K	$1,000
2022-01-17	STIVERS FOR CONGRESS	24K	$2,000
2022-01-17	STIVERS FOR CONGRESS	24K	$2,000
2021-12-17	THE COUNCIL OF INSURANCE AGENTS & BROKERS POLIT…	24K	$5,000

Connected on the graph

Inbound (27)

date	from	type	amount	source
2022-09-09	JACKSON HOLDINGS LLC AND JACKSON NATIONAL LIFE INSURANCE COMPANY SEPARATE SEGREGATED FUND (JACKSON N	contributed_to	$-1,000	pas2
2022-07-11	WINRED	contributed_to	$-5	pas2
2022-07-11	WINRED	contributed_to	$-5	pas2
2022-06-02	WINRED	contributed_to	$0	pas2
2022-05-29	WINRED	contributed_to	$-2	pas2
2022-05-21	WINRED	contributed_to	$-2	pas2
2022-05-04	WINRED	contributed_to	$0	pas2
2022-05-02	JACKSON HOLDINGS LLC AND JACKSON NATIONAL LIFE INSURANCE COMPANY SEPARATE SEGREGATED FUND (JACKSON N	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-04-28	THE REAL ESTATE ROUNDTABLE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (REALPAC)	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-04-27	AIR LINE PILOTS ASSOCIATION PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-04-26	AMERICAN PROPERTY CASUALTY INSURANCE ASSOCIATION POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (INSURING AMERICA PAC)	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-04-13	NEW YORK LIFE INSURANCE COMPANY POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-04-12	OPPORTUNITY MATTERS FUND ACTION	supports_independently	$7,930	fec_ies
2022-04-12	OPPORTUNITY MATTERS FUND ACTION	contributed_to	$7,000	pas2
2022-04-12	OPPORTUNITY MATTERS FUND ACTION	contributed_to	$59,623	pas2
2022-04-12	OPPORTUNITY MATTERS FUND ACTION	contributed_to	$7,929	pas2
2022-04-12	OPPORTUNITY MATTERS FUND ACTION	supports_independently	$7,000	fec_ies
2022-04-12	OPPORTUNITY MATTERS FUND ACTION	supports_independently	$59,624	fec_ies
2022-04-05	CGCN PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-03-30	WHOLESALE & SPECIALTY INSURANCE ASSOCIATION (WSIA) PAC	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-03-27	TOMORROW IS MEANINGFUL PAC	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-03-23	EATON CORPORATION PUBLIC POLICY ASSOCIATION	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-02-28	THE COUNCIL OF INSURANCE AGENTS & BROKERS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-01-26	THE REAL ESTATE ROUNDTABLE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (REALPAC)	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-01-17	STIVERS FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2022-01-17	STIVERS FOR CONGRESS	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2021-12-17	THE COUNCIL OF INSURANCE AGENTS & BROKERS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2

Outbound (1)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	SHAY HAWKINS FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees

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