ARNTZEN, ELSIE
R Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H4MT01058- Internal id
7c81410e-5807-438d-bb16-a7302818898e- Status
- open seat
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), MT-02. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 552,014 |
| People | Median age | 41 |
| Income | Median household income | $71,501 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $40,346 |
| Income | In poverty | 11.6% |
| Income | Unemployed | 3.8% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.454 |
| Race | White alone | 83.5% |
| Race | Black alone | 0.6% |
| Race | Asian alone | 0.7% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 4.7% |
| Race | Two or more races | 6.7% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 1.8% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 96.1% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 1.2% |
| Education | High school or higher | 61.3% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 31.4% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 9.8% |
| Household | Family households | 61.4% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.38 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 28.4% |
| Housing | Median home value | $311,300 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $981 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 70.0% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 5.4% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 1.7% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 12.4% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 9.6% |
| Health | With a disability | 15.2% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 88.6% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 8.6% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 72.5% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.7% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 10.6% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $893,088 | $893,088 | $0 | $761,068 | $122,995 |
| 2014 | $162,667 | $162,667 | $0 | $69,284 | $82,905 |
Elections
- 2024 general house Β· MT-2 β lost_general
Committees
- ELSIE ARNTZEN FOR CONGRESS β principal Β· type H
- ELSIE FOR MONTANA β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 20.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
| open seat | -5.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Connected on the graph
Outbound (2)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | ELSIE ARNTZEN FOR CONGRESS | β | candidate_committees | |
| β | principal_candidate_of | ELSIE FOR MONTANA | β | candidate_committees |