KEENAN, DANIEL
R Β· house
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- FEC candidate id
H6AZ05182- Internal id
e9613384-9047-43cf-9001-e895d8edabe3- Status
- open seat
Who this candidate represents
Who lives here β American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), AZ-05. Source.
| Category | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| People | Population | 840,221 |
| People | Median age | 39 |
| Income | Median household income | $109,252 |
| Income | Per-capita income | $49,753 |
| Income | In poverty | 6.3% |
| Income | Unemployed | 3.8% |
| Income | Gini inequality index | 0.418 |
| Race | White alone | 70.8% |
| Race | Black alone | 3.5% |
| Race | Asian alone | 5.9% |
| Race | Hispanic or Latino | 18.5% |
| Race | Two or more races | 13.7% |
| Origin | Foreign-born | 9.9% |
| Language | Speaks English only at home | 85.0% |
| Language | Speaks Spanish at home | 8.2% |
| Education | High school or higher | 61.3% |
| Education | Bachelor's or higher | 40.8% |
| Education | Advanced degree | 15.1% |
| Household | Family households | 74.3% |
| Household | Avg household size | 2.79 |
| Household | Never married (15+) | 27.6% |
| Housing | Median home value | $498,900 |
| Housing | Median gross rent | $2,032 |
| Housing | Single-family detached | 77.3% |
| Housing | Built before 1940 | 0.2% |
| Housing | Overcrowded (>1 per room) | 2.2% |
| Housing | Vacant units | 8.2% |
| Service | Veterans (18+) | 7.7% |
| Health | With a disability | 11.7% |
| Connectivity | Households with broadband | 95.3% |
| Connectivity | Households with no internet | 2.8% |
| Commute | Drove alone | 64.2% |
| Commute | Public transit | 0.3% |
| Commute | Worked from home | 24.0% |
Cycle financials
Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.
| Cycle | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | Debts | Indiv. contribs. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1,578,351 | $343,577 | $1,234,774 | $1,425,620 | $26,812 |
Elections
- 2026 general house Β· AZ-5 β running
Committees
- DANIEL KEENAN FOR CONGRESS β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 20.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| R (major party) | +10.0% |
| open seat | -5.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Transfers from committees
Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).
| Date | From committee | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-08 | ERIC BURLISON FOR CONGRESS | 24K | $2,000 |
| 2025-09-08 | ERIC BURLISON FOR CONGRESS | 24K | $2,000 |
Connected on the graph
Inbound (4)
| date | from | type | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-08 | ERIC BURLISON FOR CONGRESS | committee_contributed_to_candidate | $2,000 | 24K | fec_pas2 |
| 2025-09-08 | ERIC BURLISON FOR CONGRESS | committee_contributed_to_candidate | $2,000 | 24K | fec_pas2 |
| 2025-09-08 | ERIC BURLISON FOR CONGRESS | contributed_to | $2,000 | pas2 | |
| 2025-09-08 | ERIC BURLISON FOR CONGRESS | contributed_to | $2,000 | pas2 |
Outbound (1)
| date | type | to | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | principal_candidate_of | DANIEL KEENAN FOR CONGRESS | β | candidate_committees |