BAUGH, SCOTT

R · house

FEC candidate id: H6CA48245
Internal id: afcff075-99b4-4594-9c20-6adc61cd3489
Status: open seat

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), CA-47. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	754,999
People	Median age	39
Income	Median household income	$127,854
Income	Per-capita income	$70,414
Income	In poverty	9.0%
Income	Unemployed	5.3%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.478
Race	White alone	52.8%
Race	Black alone	1.6%
Race	Asian alone	24.6%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	17.0%
Race	Two or more races	14.1%
Origin	Foreign-born	27.1%
Language	Speaks English only at home	63.7%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	10.3%
Education	High school or higher	71.6%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	59.8%
Education	Advanced degree	24.0%
Household	Family households	61.6%
Household	Avg household size	2.48
Household	Never married (15+)	36.5%
Housing	Median home value	$1,190,500
Housing	Median gross rent	$2,811
Housing	Single-family detached	42.2%
Housing	Built before 1940	1.7%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	4.8%
Housing	Vacant units	8.2%
Service	Veterans (18+)	3.8%
Health	With a disability	8.8%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	95.8%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	2.5%
Commute	Drove alone	62.6%
Commute	Public transit	0.9%
Commute	Worked from home	25.6%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2026	$13,140	$39,375	$0	$0	$748
2024	$4,507,491	$4,491,943	$26,235	$1,036	$2,980,735
2020	$59,503	$123,711	$0	$0	$57,700
2018	$730,426	$1,214,645	$64,208	$2,000	$692,899
2016	$576,105	$27,677	$548,428	$0	$575,105

Elections

2016 general house · CA-47 — running
2016 general house · CA-48 — lost_general
2018 general house · CA-47 — running
2018 general house · CA-48 — lost_general
2020 general house · CA-47 — running
2020 general house · CA-48 — lost_general
2024 general house · CA-47 — lost_general

Committees

BAUGH FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H
SCOTT BAUGH FOR CONGRESS — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 20.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%
open seat	-5.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2024	$523,768	$663,833	55
2022	$20,013	$0	5

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$1,250	DOOR HANGER PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$5,773	MAILER PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$3,875	MEDIA PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$41,000	MEDIA PLACEMENT
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$6,208	MAILER PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$2,500	MEDIA PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$15,099	CANVASSING
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$9,225	DOOR HANGER PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$1,800	MEDIA PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$150	MEDIA PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$9,433	MAILER PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$9,564	MAILER PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$5,773	MAILER PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$1,800	MEDIA PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$1,800	MEDIA PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$1,000	MEDIA PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$7,422	MEDIA PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$73,500	MEDIA PLACEMENT
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$9,564	MAILER PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$9,564	MAILER PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$1,000	MEDIA PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$1,800	MEDIA PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$9,433	MAILER PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$1,000	MEDIA PRODUCTION
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTI…	support	$5,773	MAILER PRODUCTION

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2025-05-12	HEALTH CARE SAVES LIVES	24A	$999
2025-03-25	ASSOCIATED GENERAL CONTRACTORS OF AMERICA POLIT…	24K	$-5,000
2025-02-07	HMP	24A	$11,478

Connected on the graph

Inbound (63)

date	from	type	amount	source
—	NRDC ACTION VOTES	opposes_independently	$135,415	fec_ies
—	NRDC ACTION VOTES	opposes_independently	$364,585	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$5,773	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$41,000	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$9,564	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$1,800	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$6,208	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$15,099	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$5,773	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$2,500	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$3,875	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$9,564	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$9,564	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$150	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$1,000	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$9,564	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$6,208	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$1,800	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$1,800	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$1,000	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$7,422	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$73,500	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$9,564	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$5,773	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$1,000	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$1,800	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$9,433	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$1,250	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$9,225	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$9,433	fec_ies
2025-05-12	HEALTH CARE SAVES LIVES	contributed_to	$999	pas2
2025-03-25	ASSOCIATED GENERAL CONTRACTORS OF AMERICA POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$-5,000	pas2
2025-02-07	HMP	contributed_to	$11,478	pas2
2024-10-29	AMERICAN FEDERATION OF STATE COUNTY & MUNICIPAL EMPLOYEES P E O P L E	opposes_independently	$18,344	fec_ies
2024-10-25	NATIONAL RIGHT TO LIFE VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$179	fec_ies
2024-10-23	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$11,373	fec_ies
2024-10-21	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$10,595	fec_ies
2024-10-18	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$10,595	fec_ies
2024-10-16	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$5,000	fec_ies
2024-10-16	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$6,208	fec_ies
2024-10-15	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$11,373	fec_ies
2024-10-09	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$11,373	fec_ies
2024-10-09	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$10,595	fec_ies
2024-10-04	PROTECT FREEDOM POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	supports_independently	$10,000	fec_ies
2024-10-04	PROTECT FREEDOM POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	supports_independently	$25,000	fec_ies
2024-10-02	NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$101	fec_ies
2024-10-02	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$21,279	fec_ies
2024-10-02	NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUND	supports_independently	$2,390	fec_ies
2024-10-01	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$21,279	fec_ies
2024-09-27	AFSCME WORKING FAMILIES FUND	opposes_independently	$11,398	fec_ies
2024-09-26	AFSCME WORKING FAMILIES FUND	opposes_independently	$51,579	fec_ies
2024-09-23	AFSCME WORKING FAMILIES FUND	opposes_independently	$22,437	fec_ies
2024-09-23	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$21,279	fec_ies
2024-09-18	AFSCME WORKING FAMILIES FUND	opposes_independently	$60,075	fec_ies
2024-09-10	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$21,279	fec_ies
2024-09-03	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$21,279	fec_ies
2024-08-26	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$20,976	fec_ies
2024-08-16	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$20,976	fec_ies
2022-04-12	CLUB FOR GROWTH PAC	supports_independently	$1,420	fec_ies
2022-04-12	CLUB FOR GROWTH PAC	supports_independently	$18,059	fec_ies
2022-04-07	CLUB FOR GROWTH PAC	supports_independently	$401	fec_ies
2022-03-30	CLUB FOR GROWTH PAC	supports_independently	$80	fec_ies
2022-03-28	CLUB FOR GROWTH PAC	supports_independently	$52	fec_ies

Outbound (2)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	principal_candidate_of	BAUGH FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	SCOTT BAUGH FOR CONGRESS	—		candidate_committees

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