HALEY, NIKKI

R · president

FEC candidate id: P40010977
Internal id: 939f6e22-9c30-461a-ae2d-2c887ec1b9ad
Status: challenger

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2024	$58,378,348	$56,690,681	$1,687,667	$0	$46,896,621

Elections

2024 general president · 2024-11-05 — lost_general
2024 general president · 2024-11-05 — running
2024 general president — running
2024 general president — running
2024 general president — running
2024 general president — running
2024 general president — running
2024 general president — running
2024 general president — running
2024 general president — running
2024 general president — running
2024 general president — running
2024 general president — running

Committees

SFA ACTION — principal · type Q
SFA ACTION — independent · type Q

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2024	$102,232,214	$19,957,018	785

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
—	SFA FUND, INC	support	$3,761	Text Messaging
—	SFA FUND, INC	support	$25,000	Digital Advertising
—	SFA FUND, INC	support	$70,000	Online advertising/email communications/text messaging
—	SFA FUND, INC	support	$3,080	Text Messaging
—	SFA FUND, INC	support	$25,000	Digital Advertising
—	SFA FUND, INC	support	$50,000	Digital Advertising
—	SFA FUND, INC	support	$3,750	Website Production
—	SFA FUND, INC	support	$2,200	Website Production
—	SFA FUND, INC	support	$100,000	Online advertising/email communications/text messaging
—	LF PAC	support	$98	Advertising-Facebook-Nikki Haley PA (estimate)
—	LF PAC	support	$98	Advertising-Facebook-Nikki Haley WI (estimate)
—	LF PAC	support	$833	Advertising-Facebook-Nikki Haley WI (estimate)
—	LF PAC	support	$833	Advertising-Facebook-Nikki Haley PA (estimate)
—	LF PAC	support	$98	Advertising-Facebook-Nikki Haley MI (estimate)
—	LF PAC	support	$833	Advertising-Facebook-Nikki Haley MI (estimate)
—	PRIORITIES USA ACTION	oppose	$714	Ad Buy (Estimate)
—	PRIORITIES USA ACTION	oppose	$200	Ad Production (Estimate)
—	PRIORITIES USA ACTION	oppose	$1,500	Ad Production (Estimate)
—	PRIORITIES USA ACTION	oppose	$375	Ad Buy (Estimate)
—	PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	oppose	$4,000	Estimated Cost for Production and Distribution of Digital A…
—	INDEPENDENTS MOVING THE NEEDLE	support	$37,500	PAC Digital Ads
—	INDEPENDENTS MOVING THE NEEDLE	support	$9,157	GOTV Text Message
—	INDEPENDENTS MOVING THE NEEDLE	support	$9,157	GOTV Text Message
—	INDEPENDENTS MOVING THE NEEDLE	support	$375	PAC Banner
—	INDEPENDENTS MOVING THE NEEDLE	support	$2,829	PAC Yard Signs

Connected on the graph

Inbound (100)

date	from	type	amount	source
—	SFA FUND, INC	supports_independently	$25,000	fec_ies
—	SFA FUND, INC	supports_independently	$3,761	fec_ies
—	SFA FUND, INC	supports_independently	$50,000	fec_ies
—	SFA FUND, INC	supports_independently	$25,000	fec_ies
—	SFA FUND, INC	supports_independently	$100,000	fec_ies
—	SFA FUND, INC	supports_independently	$3,750	fec_ies
—	SFA FUND, INC	supports_independently	$2,200	fec_ies
—	SFA FUND, INC	supports_independently	$3,080	fec_ies
—	SFA FUND, INC	supports_independently	$70,000	fec_ies
—	LF PAC	supports_independently	$98	fec_ies
—	LF PAC	supports_independently	$833	fec_ies
—	LF PAC	supports_independently	$98	fec_ies
—	LF PAC	supports_independently	$833	fec_ies
—	LF PAC	supports_independently	$98	fec_ies
—	LF PAC	supports_independently	$833	fec_ies
—	PRIORITIES USA ACTION	opposes_independently	$714	fec_ies
—	PRIORITIES USA ACTION	opposes_independently	$1,500	fec_ies
—	PRIORITIES USA ACTION	opposes_independently	$200	fec_ies
—	PRIORITIES USA ACTION	opposes_independently	$375	fec_ies
—	PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES	opposes_independently	$4,000	fec_ies
—	INDEPENDENTS MOVING THE NEEDLE	supports_independently	$984	fec_ies
—	INDEPENDENTS MOVING THE NEEDLE	supports_independently	$375	fec_ies
—	INDEPENDENTS MOVING THE NEEDLE	supports_independently	$81,358	fec_ies
—	INDEPENDENTS MOVING THE NEEDLE	supports_independently	$3,336	fec_ies
—	INDEPENDENTS MOVING THE NEEDLE	supports_independently	$1,683	fec_ies
—	INDEPENDENTS MOVING THE NEEDLE	supports_independently	$100,000	fec_ies
—	INDEPENDENTS MOVING THE NEEDLE	supports_independently	$9,157	fec_ies
—	INDEPENDENTS MOVING THE NEEDLE	supports_independently	$100,000	fec_ies
—	INDEPENDENTS MOVING THE NEEDLE	supports_independently	$9,157	fec_ies
—	INDEPENDENTS MOVING THE NEEDLE	supports_independently	$9,157	fec_ies
—	INDEPENDENTS MOVING THE NEEDLE	supports_independently	$2,829	fec_ies
—	INDEPENDENTS MOVING THE NEEDLE	supports_independently	$2,478	fec_ies
—	INDEPENDENTS MOVING THE NEEDLE	supports_independently	$81,358	fec_ies
—	INDEPENDENTS MOVING THE NEEDLE	supports_independently	$100,000	fec_ies
—	INDEPENDENTS MOVING THE NEEDLE	supports_independently	$673	fec_ies
—	INDEPENDENTS MOVING THE NEEDLE	supports_independently	$50,000	fec_ies
—	INDEPENDENTS MOVING THE NEEDLE	supports_independently	$81,357	fec_ies
—	INDEPENDENTS MOVING THE NEEDLE	supports_independently	$9,157	fec_ies
—	INDEPENDENTS MOVING THE NEEDLE	supports_independently	$1,683	fec_ies
—	INDEPENDENTS MOVING THE NEEDLE	supports_independently	$375	fec_ies
—	INDEPENDENTS MOVING THE NEEDLE	supports_independently	$100,000	fec_ies
—	INDEPENDENTS MOVING THE NEEDLE	supports_independently	$2,829	fec_ies
—	INDEPENDENTS MOVING THE NEEDLE	supports_independently	$37,430	fec_ies
—	INDEPENDENTS MOVING THE NEEDLE	supports_independently	$9,157	fec_ies
—	INDEPENDENTS MOVING THE NEEDLE	supports_independently	$37,500	fec_ies
—	INDEPENDENTS MOVING THE NEEDLE	supports_independently	$9,157	fec_ies
—	INDEPENDENTS MOVING THE NEEDLE	supports_independently	$50,000	fec_ies
—	INDEPENDENTS MOVING THE NEEDLE	supports_independently	$37,430	fec_ies
—	INDEPENDENTS MOVING THE NEEDLE	supports_independently	$81,358	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$50,000	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$100,000	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$68,080	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$22,018	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$8,886	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$50,000	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$55,000	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$11,848	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$17,985	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$27,349	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$2,400	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$100,000	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$-580,000	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$7,405	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$174,534	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$35,076	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$17,476	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$3,350,000	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$14,742	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$70,783	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$12,441	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$3,999	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$75,000	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$36,000	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$504	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$8,531	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$8,100	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$5,560	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$34,549	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$200,000	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$27,349	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$3,679	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$35,520	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$7,408	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$22,200	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$3,000	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$64,063	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$15,000	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$533	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$52,598	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$2,666	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$46,850	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$46,850	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$600	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$13,719	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$200,000	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$27,349	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$2,000	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$27,349	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$65,017	fec_ies
—	AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION	supports_independently	$65,017	fec_ies

Outbound (2)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	independent_committee_of	SFA ACTION	—		candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	SFA ACTION	—		candidate_committees

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