ROSENDALE, MATT MR.

R · senate

FEC candidate id: S8MT00234
Internal id: 166120e7-ab7b-4394-93f9-8eab09b68627
Status: challenger

Who this candidate represents (statewide)

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), Montana. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	1,116,875
People	Median age	40
Income	Median household income	$72,509
Income	Per-capita income	$41,711
Income	In poverty	11.5%
Income	Unemployed	3.6%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.465
Race	White alone	85.0%
Race	Black alone	0.5%
Race	Asian alone	0.8%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	4.6%
Race	Two or more races	6.8%
Origin	Foreign-born	2.3%
Language	Speaks English only at home	95.8%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	1.4%
Education	High school or higher	62.7%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	35.2%
Education	Advanced degree	12.0%
Household	Family households	60.3%
Household	Avg household size	2.37
Household	Never married (15+)	30.2%
Housing	Median home value	$375,800
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,081
Housing	Single-family detached	68.8%
Housing	Built before 1940	4.5%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	1.8%
Housing	Vacant units	13.2%
Service	Veterans (18+)	9.0%
Health	With a disability	14.5%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	89.4%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	7.7%
Commute	Drove alone	71.1%
Commute	Public transit	0.6%
Commute	Worked from home	12.5%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2026	$920	$810,043	$110,970	$123,501	$0
2024	$1,067,698	$1,365,379	$920,093	$0	$582,549
2022	$2,284,638	$1,329,704	$1,217,773	$0	$1,268,952
2020	$4,034,800	$3,848,140	$262,839	$0	$3,143,255
2018	$5,994,023	$5,924,058	$76,178	$157,831	$4,549,341

Elections

2018 general senate · MT-S — running
2018 general senate · MT-S — lost_general
2018 general senate · MT-S — lost_general
2018 general senate · MT-S — lost_general
2018 general senate · MT-S — lost_general
2018 general senate · MT-S — running
2018 general senate · MT-S — running
2018 general senate · MT-S — running
2018 general senate · MT-S — lost_general
2018 general senate · MT-S — running
2018 general senate · MT-S — running
2018 general senate · MT-S — running
2024 general senate · MT-S — lost_general
2024 general senate · MT-S — lost_general
2024 general senate · MT-S — running
2024 general senate · MT-S — lost_general
2024 general senate · MT-S — running
2024 general senate · MT-S — running
2024 general senate · MT-S — lost_general
2024 general senate · MT-S — lost_general
2024 general senate · MT-S — lost_general

Committees

FOUNDERS COMMITTEE; THE — joint_fundraising · type S
MATT ROSENDALE FOR MONTANA — principal · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 23.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
R (major party)	+10.0%
senate race	-2.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2024	$0	$114,299	4

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
2024-02-09	MORE JOBS, LESS GOVERNMENT	oppose	$11,507	PRODUCTION COST: TV AND DIGITAL AD
2024-02-05	MORE JOBS, LESS GOVERNMENT	oppose	$7,415	TEXT MESSAGES
2024-01-29	MORE JOBS, LESS GOVERNMENT	oppose	$13,252	DIGITAL ADVERTISING
2024-01-29	MORE JOBS, LESS GOVERNMENT	oppose	$82,124	PLACED MEDIA: TV

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2025-04-21	MONTPAC-MONTANA MEDICAL ASSOCIATION (MMA)	24K	$-500
2022-12-19	NATIONAL PRO-LIFE ALLIANCE PAC	24K	$500
2022-11-02	FREEDOM CAUCUS FUND	24E	$145
2022-10-13	ROUGHRIDER PAC	24K	$1,000
2022-09-06	MDU RESOURCES GROUP GOOD GOVERNMENT FUND	24K	$2,000
2022-04-12	PRESSURE PAC	24A	$1,250
2022-03-21	COALPAC, A POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE OF THE NA…	24K	$500
2022-03-21	MINEPAC, A POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE OF THE NA…	24K	$500
2022-03-15	MONTPAC-MONTANA MEDICAL ASSOCIATION (MMA)	24K	$500
2022-03-01	COALPAC, A POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE OF THE NA…	24K	$500
2022-03-01	MINEPAC, A POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE OF THE NA…	24K	$500
2021-11-22	WESTERN SUGAR COOPERATIVE PAC	24K	$2,000
2021-10-22	SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BEET SUGAR COOPERATIVE POLIT…	24K	$2,000
2021-10-20	MINN-DAK FARMERS COOPERATIVE SUGAR PAC (MDSPAC)	24K	$1,000
2021-09-14	NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL…	24K	$1,000
2021-01-07	SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND	24E	$0

Connected on the graph

Inbound (20)

date	from	type	amount	source
2025-04-21	MONTPAC-MONTANA MEDICAL ASSOCIATION (MMA)	contributed_to	$-500	pas2
2024-02-09	MORE JOBS, LESS GOVERNMENT	opposes_independently	$11,507	fec_ies
2024-02-05	MORE JOBS, LESS GOVERNMENT	opposes_independently	$7,415	fec_ies
2024-01-29	MORE JOBS, LESS GOVERNMENT	opposes_independently	$13,252	fec_ies
2024-01-29	MORE JOBS, LESS GOVERNMENT	opposes_independently	$82,124	fec_ies
2022-12-19	NATIONAL PRO-LIFE ALLIANCE PAC	contributed_to	$500	pas2
2022-11-02	FREEDOM CAUCUS FUND	contributed_to	$145	pas2
2022-10-13	ROUGHRIDER PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-09-06	MDU RESOURCES GROUP GOOD GOVERNMENT FUND	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2022-04-12	PRESSURE PAC	contributed_to	$1,250	pas2
2022-03-21	MINEPAC, A POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE OF THE NATIONAL MINING ASSOCIATION	contributed_to	$500	pas2
2022-03-21	COALPAC, A POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE OF THE NATIONAL MINING ASSOCIATION	contributed_to	$500	pas2
2022-03-15	MONTPAC-MONTANA MEDICAL ASSOCIATION (MMA)	contributed_to	$500	pas2
2022-03-01	MINEPAC, A POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE OF THE NATIONAL MINING ASSOCIATION	contributed_to	$500	pas2
2022-03-01	COALPAC, A POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE OF THE NATIONAL MINING ASSOCIATION	contributed_to	$500	pas2
2021-11-22	WESTERN SUGAR COOPERATIVE PAC	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2021-10-22	SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BEET SUGAR COOPERATIVE POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$2,000	pas2
2021-10-20	MINN-DAK FARMERS COOPERATIVE SUGAR PAC (MDSPAC)	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2021-09-14	NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUND	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2021-01-07	SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND	contributed_to	$0	pas2

Outbound (2)

date	type	to	amount	role	source
—	joint_fundraising_committee_of	FOUNDERS COMMITTEE; THE	—		candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	MATT ROSENDALE FOR MONTANA	—		candidate_committees

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