THOMPSON, ROGER
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canonical Β· thompson/roger Β· 1 alias Β· 1 outbound Β· 0 inbound
FEC candidate β THOMPSON, ROGER
D Β· house Β· open seat Β· FEC H0IL05229
Elections (1)
- 2009 general house Β· IL-5 β running
Committees (1)
- FRIENDS OF ROGER β principal Β· type H
Election prediction
Election prediction
Cycle 2026 Β· model baseline-v1 Β· base rate 15.1%
P(win) = 20.1%
| Feature | Ξ P(win) |
|---|---|
| Base rate (historical) | 15.1% |
| D (major party) | +10.0% |
| open seat | -5.0% |
Baseline model (incumbency Γ party Γ office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.
Independent expenditures for/against
Coordinated party expenditures
Top individual donors β FRIENDS OF ROGER
Committee assignments
Congressional staff (offices this person hires)
STOCK Act trades
Timeline
Every typed-graph event involving this entity, newest first. Each row is one edge in the influence graph; the inline strip under the row shows the counterpart's own context (a bill's latest action, a hearing's chamber + date, a filing's form type + filed date, a clip's source + excerpt) so the timeline reads like a Wikipedia citation rail.
- 2026-05-17 Β· is the candidate's principal committee FRIENDS OF ROGER Β· candidate_committees
Connected on the graph
1 typed relationship in the influence graph β 0 inbound, 1 outbound, grouped by type.
principal candidate of (1)
| date | dir | entity | amount | role | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| β | β | FRIENDS OF ROGER | β | candidate_committees |
Aliases (1)
| source | id | name at source | jurisdiction | confidence | linked by | linked at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| fec | H0IL05229 | THOMPSON, ROGER | US | bronze | backfill_0028 |
News clips about this person
Mentioned in /ask threads
Canonical: https://pac.dog/persons/4cbb845e-a111-4207-9b7f-21d9ba40da40