SINEMA, KYRSTEN

D · house

FEC candidate id: H2AZ09019
Internal id: 21d7e196-4232-4d70-8c34-354aba848403
Status: incumbent

Who this candidate represents

Who lives here — American Community Survey 5-year estimates (2024), AZ-09. Source.

Category	Metric	Value
People	Population	863,227
People	Median age	41
Income	Median household income	$78,678
Income	Per-capita income	$37,800
Income	In poverty	10.8%
Income	Unemployed	5.2%
Income	Gini inequality index	0.427
Race	White alone	62.9%
Race	Black alone	4.5%
Race	Asian alone	2.2%
Race	Hispanic or Latino	31.2%
Race	Two or more races	17.7%
Origin	Foreign-born	10.1%
Language	Speaks English only at home	79.0%
Language	Speaks Spanish at home	17.3%
Education	High school or higher	52.2%
Education	Bachelor's or higher	22.9%
Education	Advanced degree	8.4%
Household	Family households	69.9%
Household	Avg household size	2.59
Household	Never married (15+)	28.3%
Housing	Median home value	$371,600
Housing	Median gross rent	$1,509
Housing	Single-family detached	70.3%
Housing	Built before 1940	0.5%
Housing	Overcrowded (>1 per room)	4.2%
Housing	Vacant units	13.0%
Service	Veterans (18+)	10.5%
Health	With a disability	14.9%
Connectivity	Households with broadband	92.1%
Connectivity	Households with no internet	5.5%
Commute	Drove alone	71.5%
Commute	Public transit	0.3%
Commute	Worked from home	15.4%

Cycle financials

Source: FEC weball bulk file (cycle summary). Numbers in USD; 0 = no activity reported.

Cycle	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand	Debts	Indiv. contribs.
2026	$162,530	$4,439,410	$0	$0	$0
2024	$5,311,801	$9,272,137	$4,276,880	$0	$2,146,870
2022	$8,113,876	$2,332,395	$8,237,222	$0	$6,099,444
2020	$3,625,300	$1,341,085	$2,455,741	$0	$2,161,827
2018	$22,643,275	$24,735,383	$171,527	$0	$18,692,195
2016	$4,402,181	$2,441,663	$2,263,633	$0	$2,232,184
2014	$3,718,525	$3,464,333	$303,115	$0	$2,287,356
2012	$2,167,384	$2,118,461	$48,923	$0	$1,717,911

Elections

2012 general house · AZ-9 — running
2014 general house · AZ-9 — running
2016 general house · AZ-9 — running
2018 general house · AZ-9 — lost_general

Committees

AUSTIN INNOVATION 2015 — joint_fundraising · type H
AUSTIN INNOVATION 2016 — joint_fundraising · type H
COPPER STATE MAJORITY FUND — joint_fundraising · type N
GABBARD - SINEMA JOINT VICTORY FUND — joint_fundraising · type H
SINEMA FOR ARIZONA — principal · type S
WESTERN WOMEN WIN — joint_fundraising · type N
WESTERN WOMEN WIN — joint_fundraising · type H

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 99.0%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
incumbent	+78.0%
D (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures

Money spent by super PACs and other non-connected committees for or against this candidate. Source: FEC Schedule E (independent_expenditure CSV bulk).

Cycle	Support	Oppose	IEs
2022	$1,000	$1,000	2

Recent (latest 25)

Date	Spender	For / against	Amount	Purpose
2022-01-18	PRESSURE PAC	oppose	$1,000	Digital Advertisement; IE-Only Account
2021-12-09	PRESSURE PAC	support	$1,000	Digital Advertisement; IE-Only Account

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2022-06-27	L3HARRIS TECHNOLOGIES, INC. PAC	24K	$2,500
2022-05-16	MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL, INC. POLITICAL ACTION C…	24K	$5,000
2022-03-21	K&L GATES LLP POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (DC)	24K	$1,000
2022-01-18	PRESSURE PAC	24A	$1,000
2021-12-09	PRESSURE PAC	24E	$1,000
2021-07-02	PLS FINANCIAL SVCS INC GOOD NEIGHBOR POLITICAL…	24K	$2,500

Connected on the graph

Inbound (8)

date	from	type	amount	source
2022-06-27	L3HARRIS TECHNOLOGIES, INC. PAC	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2
2022-05-16	MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL, INC. POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE	contributed_to	$5,000	pas2
2022-03-21	K&L GATES LLP POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE (DC)	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2022-01-18	PRESSURE PAC	opposes_independently	$1,000	fec_ies
2022-01-18	PRESSURE PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2021-12-09	PRESSURE PAC	supports_independently	$1,000	fec_ies
2021-12-09	PRESSURE PAC	contributed_to	$1,000	pas2
2021-07-02	PLS FINANCIAL SVCS INC GOOD NEIGHBOR POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTE (PLS GOOD NEIGHBOR PAC)	contributed_to	$2,500	pas2

Outbound (7)

date	type	to	amount	source
—	joint_fundraising_committee_of	AUSTIN INNOVATION 2015	—	candidate_committees
—	joint_fundraising_committee_of	WESTERN WOMEN WIN	—	candidate_committees
—	joint_fundraising_committee_of	GABBARD - SINEMA JOINT VICTORY FUND	—	candidate_committees
—	joint_fundraising_committee_of	AUSTIN INNOVATION 2016	—	candidate_committees
—	joint_fundraising_committee_of	COPPER STATE MAJORITY FUND	—	candidate_committees
—	joint_fundraising_committee_of	WESTERN WOMEN WIN	—	candidate_committees
—	principal_candidate_of	SINEMA FOR ARIZONA	—	candidate_committees

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