GARZA, JULIO

canonical · garza/julio · 1 alias · 0 outbound · 6 inbound

FEC candidate — GARZA, JULIO

D · house · challenger · FEC H2TX15161

Elections (1)

2022 general house · TX-15 — lost_general

Committees (0)

No committees on file.

Election prediction

Election prediction

Cycle 2026 · model baseline-v1 · base rate 15.1%

P(win) = 25.1%

Feature	Δ P(win)
Base rate (historical)	15.1%
D (major party)	+10.0%

Baseline model (incumbency × party × office). Calibration: backtest Brier score is the reference, see npm run db:ingest -- --source=predict-backtest-election. Future model versions must beat baseline Brier on the same held-out cohort or they don't ship.

Independent expenditures for/against

Coordinated party expenditures

Transfers from committees

Direct contributions from PACs and party committees. Source: FEC pas2 bulk (committee-to-candidate transactions).

Date	From committee	Type	Amount
2022-02-22	CLF	24A	$1,000
2022-02-17	CLF	24A	$1,000
2022-02-16	CLF	24A	$37,500

Committee assignments

Congressional staff (offices this person hires)

STOCK Act trades

Timeline

Every typed-graph event involving this entity, newest first. Each row is one edge in the influence graph; the inline strip under the row shows the counterpart's own context (a bill's latest action, a hearing's chamber + date, a filing's form type + filed date, a clip's source + excerpt) so the timeline reads like a Wikipedia citation rail.

2022-02-22 · received contribution from CLF $1,000 · pas2
2022-02-22 · Committee contributed to candidate (pas2) CLF $1,000 (24a) · fec_pas2
2022-02-17 · Committee contributed to candidate (pas2) CLF $1,000 (24a) · fec_pas2
2022-02-17 · received contribution from CLF $1,000 · pas2
2022-02-16 · Committee contributed to candidate (pas2) CLF $37,500 (24a) · fec_pas2
2022-02-16 · received contribution from CLF $37,500 · pas2

Connected on the graph

6 typed relationships in the influence graph — 6 inbound, 0 outbound, grouped by type.

committee contributed to candidate (3)

date	dir	entity	amount	role	source
2022-02-22	←	CLF	$1,000	24A	fec_pas2
2022-02-17	←	CLF	$1,000	24A	fec_pas2
2022-02-16	←	CLF	$37,500	24A	fec_pas2

contributed to (3)

date	dir	entity	amount	source
2022-02-22	←	CLF	$1,000	pas2
2022-02-17	←	CLF	$1,000	pas2
2022-02-16	←	CLF	$37,500	pas2

Aliases (1)

source	id	name at source	jurisdiction	confidence	linked by	linked at
fec	H2TX15161	GARZA, JULIO	US	bronze	backfill_0028	2026-05-17

News clips about this person

Mentioned in /ask threads

Canonical: https://pac.dog/persons/24bf219d-eaaf-4b3d-8a05-e3f488e9d04f

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